Best UFC 300 Main Event Bets: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill

  • What: UFC 300 Main Event
  • Who: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill
  • Date: Saturday, April 13, 2024
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
  • Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET) Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET) PPV Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
  • How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ Pay-Per-View)

Alex Pereira puts his UFC light heavyweight title on the line for the first time when he faces former UFC light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill in the main event of UFC 300. UFC 300 takes place on Saturday, April 13, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Pereira won the vacant title in November with a TKO victory over Jiri Prochazka. Hill vacated the UFC’s 205-pound title in July 2023 following an Achilles tendon injury. Hill claimed the UFC light heavyweight title in January 2023 with a decision win over Glover Teixeira.

Alex Pereira (9-2) is a former UFC middleweight champion. He won that belt in November 2022 with a knockout of Israel Adesanya. He gave the title back to Adesanya in April 2023, losing via knockout. Pereira moved to 205 pounds in July 2023 and earned the UFC light heavyweight belt in his second fight at that weight. Pereira has a 6-1 UFC record.

Jamahal Hill (12-1-0-1) joined the UFC in 2019. He is on a four-fight winning streak, with three of those victories coming by knockout. Hill is 6-1-0-1 in the UFC. Hill is the No. 1 fighter in the official UFC light heavyweight rankings.

Before we look at the best bets for the Pereira vs. Hill matchup on the UFC 300 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.

UFC 300 main event: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill betting picks

To Win UFC 300 Main EventBetOnline ReviewBovadaBetUS Review
Jamahal Hill+121+120+120
Alex Pereira-141-145-145

Alex Pereira betting breakdown

A former two-division Glory kickboxing champion, Alex Pereira entered the UFC with elite striking skills. Those abilities, and his history with Israel Adesanya under the Glory banner, earned him a quick title shot in the middleweight division. Pereira did not waste his opportunity, as he knocked out Adesanya to claim the 185-pound title. He gave the title back to Adesanya in his next outing. Pereira then moved up to the more natural weight of 205 pounds where he claimed that division’s title in two UFC fights.

Pereira’s striking is top-notch. He has power and speed in his strikes. Especially noteworthy are Pereira’s calf kicks, which are devastating in their power but also nearly impossible to check because of how fast he throws those strikes. The champ often goes to the legs, landing 30 percent or more of his total strikes in his past two fights to his opponent’s legs. Those heavy leg strikes, which he throws early and often serve to set up his power strikes to the head.

If Pereira has a weakness, it’s his grappling, but Jamahal Hill has yet to attempt a takedown as a member of the UFC roster.

Pereira averages 5.00 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 60 percent. He absorbs 3.65 significant strikes per minute with a defense rate of 50 percent.

Alex Pereira TO BEAT JAMAHAL HILL
★★★★★
-141
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Jamahal Hill betting breakdown

Like his opponent in the main event of UFC 300, Jamahal Hill is a striker. In fact, the former UFC light heavyweight champion has never attempted a takedown as a member of the UFC roster. Hill has stopping power in his strikes, but he is also incredibly active with his strikes. During his title-winning scrap against Glover Teixeira, Hill attempted 402 significant strikes and landed 232 of those attempts. Those 232 significant strikes landed are a UFC light heavyweight record for most strikes landed in a UFC 205-pound scrap, and the 402 attempts rank second all-time in a UFC light heavyweight battle.

Hill sets a fast pace, and he has gone five rounds. When the ex-champ gets an opening, he unloads with combinations, with most of his strikes focused on his opponent’s head. Against Teixeira, 77 percent of Hill’s landed strikes were to his foe’s head. Hill averages 7.31 significant strikes landed per minute, and he lands with 54 percent accuracy. Hill absorbs 3.35 significant strikes per minute and has a defensive rate of 47 percent.

If there is a concern heading into this fight, it’s Hill’s long layoff and the nature of the injury that kept him out of action for more than a year. If Hill’s Achilles tendon injury prevents him from moving well, he’ll be in trouble when it comes to Pereira’s debilitating calf kicks.

Jamahal HillTO BEAT ALEX PEREIRA
★★★★★
+120
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Best Bets: UFC 300 main event – Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill

The first thing to say about this fight, the main event of UFC 300, is that the fans should be looking forward to a standup battle between two of the best strikers in the UFC light heavyweight division.

As for the betting pick, Hill is a live underdog, and he could very well catch Pereira against the cage and knock him out with a flurry of strikes in that position. With that in mind, there is betting value in placing a wager on Hill to walk away with the title via knockout.

However, that is not the betting pick I suggest for this matchup. Pereira is more polished and well-rounded in his striking. He will slow down Hill with leg kicks early and set himself up to land head strikes later. The betting pick is for Alex Pereira to retain the UFC light heavyweight title with a knockout win over Jamahal Hill in the second half of this fight.

Alex Pereira TO BEAT JAMAHAL HILL
★★★★★
-141
Bet now

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-view broadcast of UFC 1. He also has extensive experience in esports, particularly League of Legends and Counter Strike, dating back to the game's launch.