- What: UFC 295 main event
- Who: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
- Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023
- Location: Madison Square Garden in New York City
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00) Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET) PPV Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ESPNews), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
With UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones suffering a pectoral tear, his title defense against former UFC heavyweight titleholder Stipe Miocic has been removed from the UFC 295 pay-per-view event. The new headlining bout for the November 11 UFC fight card from Madison Square Garden pits ex-UFC light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka against former UFC middleweight kingpin Alex Pereira. Prochazka and Pereira battle for the vacant UFC light heavyweight crown in that scrap. Here is some information on Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC 295 PPV fight card.
Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1) won the UFC light heavyweight title in his second fight with the promotion, defeating Glover Teixeira by submission at UFC 275. While training for a 2022 rematch with Teixeira, Prochazka suffered a shoulder injury that forced him out of that fight. He surrendered the title at that time. Prochazaka has not fought since he bested Teixeira in June 2022.
Alex Pereira (8-2) captured the UFC middleweight crown in his fourth UFC outing, knocking out Israel Adesanya at UFC 281. Adesanya regained the title from Pereira at UFC 287 via knockout. Pereira, a former two-division Glory Kickboxing champion, moved to light heavyweight in 2023, scoring a split decision over former UFC champ Jan Błachowicz at UFC 291. That July 2023 matchup was Pereira’s most recent trip to the octagon.
UFC 295 main event: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira betting odds
|To Win UFC 295 Main Event|
UFC 295 main event: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira betting breakdown
In all likelihood, this light heavyweight matchup between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira will stay on the feet. Throughout his MMA career, the 31-year-old Prochazka has picked up 25 of his victories by way of knockout. As for the 36-year-old Pereira, he has six knockout victories during his MMA run. When looking at these numbers, one must consider that Pereira had a lengthy kickboxing career before he moved to MMA full-time after inking a deal with the UFC in 2021.
Wrestling is not something Prochazka and Pereira use all that much. In fact, during their UFC careers, each man has attempted one takedown. Prochazka has much more MMA experience, so I expect he will be the fighter to try to get the action to the mat, if that happens during this contest. With that being said, Prochazka is the type of combatant to fight an opponent where they are the strongest. So, I would only count on a takedown attempt from the former light heavyweight champ if things go particularly bad for him during this scrap.
UFC 295 main event: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira stats breakdown
As stated above, expect Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira to engage in a striking battle when they meet in the main event of UFC 295. With that in mind, we will focus on the striking statistics of these two UFC light heavyweights heading into the ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view event. Both men are active on the feet, with Prochazka having a slight advantage in how many significant strikes he lands per minute. The ex-205-pound champ lands 5.77 significant strikes per minute, as compared to Pereira’s 5.11. However, Pereira is more accurate than his foe, landing 62 percent of his attempted strikes vs. Prochazka’s 55 percent landing rate.
Defensively, Pereira is more sound than his opponent. The ex-middleweight champ absorbs 3.70 significant strikes per minute, while Prochazka gets hit on average 5.40 times per minute, which is an alarming number against a fighter as powerful and quick as Pereira. As for their overall striking defense percentage, Prochazka defends 40 percent of the strikes thrown his way, while Pereira has a defensive rate of 51 percent.
Best Bets: UFC 295 main event: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira
While the main event of UFC 295 is a light heavyweight contest, in some ways the Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira matchup is like a heavyweight fight in that a knockout win by either man would not be a surprise. With that, there is value in picking either man to triumph via knockout. For those who like the betting underdog in this contest, a pick for Prochazka to win via late submission also presents a fair amount of betting value. However, my betting pick for the main event of UFC 295 is to go with the betting favorite to win via knockout. Pereira is fast, and powerful and his kickboxing experience can’t be overlooked, nor can his growth in the defensive wrestling department.
Best UFC 295 Main Event Betting Pick: Alex Pereira to beat Jiri Prochazka by knockout.
See below a list of reliable sportsbooks and choose the best one for you.