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- What: UFC 291 BMF Title Fight
- Co-Main Event: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2
- Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023
- Location: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET) Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET) Pay-Per-View (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ABC, ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
A notable and possible consequential rematch headlines UFC 291 on July 29 in Salt Lake City. In the main event of the ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view card, two former UFC interim lightweight champions, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, face off. The UFC BMF title is on the line in the much-anticipated rematch. Here is some background on the UFC 291 PPV main event fighters, before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC 291 card.
Poirier (29-7-0-1) is coming off a November submission win over Michael Chandler, who himself is looking to face Conor McGregor, who Poirier has two recent TKO wins over. The ex-interim champ is 0-2 in UFC lightweight title fights, losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira in those outings. Poirier is currently the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings.
Gaethje (23-4), who was a World Series of Fighting lightweight champ before joining the UFC, is coming off a March decision win over Rafael Fiziev. Like Poirier, he is 0-2 in UFC lightweight title fights, also losing to Nurmagomedov and Oliveira. Gaethje is No. 3 in the official UFC 155-pound rankings.
Before we look at the best bets for the main event of the UFC 291 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC 291 main event: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2 betting picks
| To Win UFC BMF Title |  |  |  |  |
| Dustin Poirier | -122 | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Justin Gaethje | +102 | +106 | EVEN | +100 |
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2 betting breakdown
Poirier and Gaethje are two of the most exciting fighters in the UFC. The two men have combined for 24 fight-night bonus awards, and both men are coming off “Fight of the Night” bonus-winning performances in their most recent outings. Their first fight, which Poirier won via TKO in the fourth round, earned “Fight of the Night” accolades. There is little doubt that the rematch will also be in the running for that same $50,000 bonus.
Poirier has shown himself to be measured in his aggression. He is well-trained and approaches his fights thoughtfully, using high striking output while mixing his wrestling and grappling skills when appropriate. He is defensively sound in the striking department, but when he finds an opening, he will pounce and increase his output and aggression.
Gaethje is an iron-chinned scrapper with some of the best leg kicks in the game. Over the past few years, Gaethje has morphed from a brawler into a more mature and measured fighter. Gone are the days of standing in the center of the cage and winging punches. Yes, the ex-interim UFC champ can summon that part of himself if the fight requires it, but he is calmer these days and he tends to use his striking to create openings rather than doing so via brute force and output.
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2: What’s changed?
These two are not the same fighters they were when they first faced off in 2018. Poirier and Gaethje are both 6-2 since they met at UFC on FOX 29 with both their losses coming in title fights to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. Time has allowed both men to mature, develop their skills, and add new wrinkles to their games.
Poirier was the more polished fighter in 2018. That fact remains the same. He fights smarter than Gaethje and controls his emotions better. He is also more focused and sees openings and opportunities better than his foe at UFC 291.
As for Gaethje, he has reigned in his once reckless style. He doesn’t brawl as much as he once did. Gaethje looks for opportunities much more these days rather than relying on brute force, power, and a strong chin to create his openings. He has also improved his footwork, which makes him a more elusive fighter. However, Gaethje still gets hit a lot, averaging 7.66 significant strikes against per minute. Yes, he has an excellent chin, but that’s not something he wants to rely on against a man, in Poirier, who has 14 knockouts and eight submissions.
Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2: What’s at stake?
The obvious goal in this matchup is to earn the victory and claim the BMF title. What comes after that could very well be another shot at UFC lightweight gold. Neither Poirier nor Gaethje have faced current UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev, who is currently looking for his next opponent. With that, and because former two-division UFC champ Conor McGregor is out of the mix, the betting odds are good that the winner of UFC 291’s main event will earn a shot at Makhachev and his 155-pound title.
Best Bets for UFC 291 main event: Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje 2
This is a challenging fight to pick. Either man could score a knockout win, with Gaethje being the betting favorite to do that early in the bout, thanks to his power. The longer the contest goes, the more the betting odds favor Poirier to pick up the win. My betting pick for the main event of UFC 291 is Dustin Poirier to pick up the win via decision. With that being said, picking Gaethje or Poirier to win via TKO is acceptable, and either of those choices could present some betting value.
With the way the first fight went and the changes both men have made since then, Poirier is the betting pick.
Best UFC 291 main event betting pick: Dustin Poirier to beat Justin Gaethje via decision to claim the UFC BMF title.
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