Best UFC Vegas 92 Main Event Bets: Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy

  • What: UFC Vegas 92 Main Event
  • Who: Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy
  • Date: Saturday, May 18, 2024
  • Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
  • Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET), Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
  • How to Watch: ESPN+

The UFC is back in Las Vegas this weekend after a successful trip to St. Louis. In the main event of UFC Vegas 92, UFC veteran Edson Barboza faces Lerone Murphy in a featherweight scrap. Barboza, who has been a member of the UFC roster since 2010, is the No. 11 fighter in the official UFC featherweight rankings. Meanwhile, Murphy, who joined the UFC in 2019, is looking to return to the rankings after a brief time inside the top 15. Here is some background on the fighters before we discuss the betting breakdown Riyadh, Saudi Arabia of the main event of UFC Vegas 92.

Edson Barboza (24-11) has ups and downs with the UFC. The 38-year-old is on an upswing. In 2023he went 2-0, picking up fight-night bonuses in his two outings. He is coming off a “Fight of the Night” decision win over Sodiq Yusuff in October.

Lerone Murphy (13-0-1) is unbeaten in six UFC bouts. The 32-year-old fought twice in 2023 after missing all of 2022. Murphy is coming off a July 2023 unanimous decision win over Joshua Culibao.

Before we look at the best bets for the Barboza vs. Murphy matchup on the UFC Vegas 92 fight card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.

UFC Vegas 92 main event betting picks – Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy

FightersBetOnline ReviewBovadaBetUS Review
Edson Barboza+129+130+130
Lerone Murphy-149-155-155

Edson Barboza betting breakdown

One of the best strikers to ever compete in the UFC, Edson Barboza might not have a UFC title fight on his resume, but some of his knockoutsespecially when he halted Terry Etim in 2012, will live on as some of the most violent stoppages in UFC history. Barboza might be getting up there in age. He turned 38 in Januarybut he is still a fighter who can compete with the best of the 145-pound division. His past two opponents, Billy Quarantillo and Sodiq Yusuff, were in the same spot Lerone Murphy is in when they faced Barboza, rising prospects looking to break through with a win over the veteran.

Barboza has some of the best movement in the UFC. His striking is fast and effective, and he has a vast arsenal of techniques he can employ. A technical striker who can find small openings, Barboza also employs a high-output approach to his striking. In addition to his striking, Barboza is comfortable on the mat and he can be an effective grappler if that’s where the fight takes place. He is good everywhere a fight can take place.

Barboza has a two-inch height and reach advantage in this contest. The Brazilian lands 4.18 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 45 percent. He absorbs 4.34 significant strikes per minute with a defense of 57 percent. Barboza averages 0.48 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown success rate is 50 percent, while his takedown defense is 75 percent. Barboza averages 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes.

Edson BarbozaTO BEAT LERONE MURPHY
★★★★★
+129
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Lerone Murphy betting breakdown

This fight is a massive opportunity for Lerone Murphy. He does not have the name recognition of Edson Barboza, nor does he have the record or longevity of his UFC Vegas 92 opponent. However, he is the betting favorite heading into this Saturday’s matchup.

Murphy is also a technical striker. He has excellent speed but also packs a lot of power in his strikes. The English fighter can move into range quickly, strike to the head or body, and then move out of range before his opponent can counter. He has good footwork, but his takedown defense needs to be addressed. Murphy has been taken down 10 times in his past three fights. However, he is a good scrambler and has shown the ability to get back to his feet.

The big question about Murphy heading into this contest is how he will perform against an opponent as savvy and accomplished as Barboza. This bout is, by far, the toughest booking of Murphy’s career.

Murphy lands 3.65 significant strikes per minute on a success rate of 50 percent. His striking defense is 56 percent, and he absorbs 2.40 significant strikes per minute. Murphy averages 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 46 percent, and he has a submission rate of 0.9 per 15 minutes.

Lerone MurphyTO BEAT EDSON BARBOZA
★★★★★
-155
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Best Bets for UFC Vegas 92 main event – Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy

Lerone Murphy has a lot of pressure on him heading into UFC Vegas 92. This is his first UFC main event fight, he is the betting favorite, and he’s facing one of the most skilled and dangerous fighters to compete at lightweight or featherweight for the promotion. Murphy is a good fighter, but the jury is out on his upside. The betting pick is for Edson Barboza to beat Lerone Murphy by decision at UFC Vegas 92.

Edson BarbozaTO BEAT LERONE MURPHY
★★★★★
+129
Bet now

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-view broadcast of UFC 1. He also has extensive experience in esports, particularly League of Legends and Counter Strike, dating back to the game's launch.