- What: UFC Vegas 80
- Who: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green
- Date: Saturday, October 7, 2023
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
A high-stakes lightweight contest headlines UFC Vegas 80, which takes place on October 7 at the UFC Apex. In that bout, which streams on ESPN+, Grant Dawson faces Bobby Green. Dawson, who has slowly but steadily climbed the official UFC lightweight rankings since making his promotional debut in 2019, matches up against the veteran Green, who has been with the UFC since 2013. Here is some information on Dawson vs. Green before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC Vegas 80 fight card.
Grant Dawson (20-1-1) is the No. 10 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings. He is unbeaten under the UFC banner and coming off a July decision win over Damir Ismagulov. Dawson was a slight betting underdog in that scrap.
Bobby Green (30-14-1-1) is currently unranked in the UFC’s 155-pound division. The veteran combatant last fought in July when he submitted former interim UFC lightweight champion Tony Ferguson at UFC 291. Green was a substantial betting favorite in that fight. Before that, Green had gone 0-2-0-1 with knockout losses to Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober.
Before we look at the best bets for the Dawson vs. Green matchup at UFC Vegas 80, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the main event of UFC 294, Islam Makhachev vs. Charles Oliveira 2.
UFC Vegas 80 main event: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green betting picks
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UFC Vegas 80 main event: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green betting breakdown
At 29, Grant Dawson is 8-0-1 in the UFC. The 29-year-old has been making a slow climb up the UFC rankings. He was ranked at No. 15 before his win over the No. 12-ranked Ismagulov. The American Top Team product is progressing in his striking, but he mainly relies on his wrestling skills and his ability to control the fight on the mat. Against Ismagulov, Dawson went three for five on takedowns while accumulating a staggering 12:24 of control time during the 15-minute contest. He had one takedown in each round and held his foe to 13 landed significant strikes total. Expect Dawson to look to get the fight to the mat and keep it there against the wily Green in Vegas.
Bobby Green is a mixed martial artist. While the 37-year-old is most comfortable in a striking matchup, he can get things done on the mat as well, as his submission of Ferguson showed. Green is aggressive on his feet, but he keeps a low guard and can be hit. That low guard could come in handy against Dawson since Green knows he will be looking to get a takedown early in each round.
UFC Vegas 80 main event: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green statistical breakdown
Grant Dawson is one of the most effective grapplers in the UFC lightweight division. Despite only having nine UFC fights, he is ninth among active UFC lightweight in control time at 45:50 and second in control time percentage at 64.3 percent. Dawson is eighth in top position time at 38:33 and first in top position percentage at 54.1 percent. As for his striking, he doesn’t land a lot of strikes per minute (2.99), but he also doesn’t get hit much, as his 2.22 strikes absorbed per minute is seventh among active UFC 155-pounders.
Bobby Green is a high-output striker. No active UFC lightweight has landed as many significant strikes as he has at 1,637, and he also has the top striking differential among active 155-pounders at 2.53. As for strikes landed per minute, Green ranks second at 6.28, and his striking accuracy is ninth at 52.4 percent.
Green’s takedown defense is good at 74 percent. He will need that because Dawson averages 3.70 takedowns per 15 minutes of action.
UFC Vegas 80 main event: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green – Who has the edge?
This is a grappler vs. striker matchup, with Dawson being the grappler and Green being the striker. For Dawson, this is a fight that can launch him into the elite of the lightweight division. Green might not be ranked, but he is a well-respected veteran UFC fighter and the type of fighter who can take someone like Dawson out of his comfort zone.
Dawson has grown more comfortable with his striking, and that’s a good thing because over the course of this five-round fight there are going to be times when he’s forced to use those skills against the savvy Green, who should be able to stop some of Dawson’s takedown attempts.
The advantage goes to the fighter who can impose their will. For me, that fighter is the betting favorite, Grant Dawson.
Best Bets: UFC Vegas 80 main event: Grant Dawson vs. Bobby Green
While Green is a striker, he has not had a knockout win since he ended an eight-year KO drought in 2021. Also, before his submission victoy over Ferguson, Green had not picked up a submission win since 2013. All told 11 of Green’s wins, and eight of his losses have come via decision. As for Dawson, before he went the distance against Ismagulov, he had won two fights via third-round submission. Throughout his career he has 13 submission wins, three decision victories, and four knockouts.
For those who favor the betting underdog, there is value in placing a small wager on Green to win by KO. Green is not my betting pick. I’m going with the betting favorite, Grant Dawson to win. My best bet is Grant Dawson to win via submission after the third round.
Best UFC Vegas 80 Main Event Betting Pick: Grant Dawson to beat Bobby Green by submission.
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