Best UFC 302 Betting Picks: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov

  • What: UFC 302
  • Who: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov
  • Date: Saturday, June 1, 2024
  • Location: Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
  • Time: Early Prelims (6:15 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
  • How to Watch:  Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN2, ESPN+), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)

The first of two UFC pay-per-view events in June takes place on Saturday, June 1, when UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev puts his title on the line against Dustin Poirier. In the co-main event, UFC middleweight contenders Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa face.  Before those bouts, Jailton Almeida meets Alexander Romanov at heavyweight. Here is some background on Almeida and Romanov before we look at the betting breakdown of UFC 302.

Jailton Almeida (20-3) is the No. 7 fighter in the official UFC heavyweight rankings. Almeida opened his UFC career on a 6-0 run, but Curtis Blaydes knocked him out in March. UFC 302 marks Almeida’s first trip to the Octagon since that defeat.

Alexander Romanov (17-2) is ranked No. 13 in the UFC heavyweight division. He ended a two-fight losing skid in July 2023 with a decision win over Blagoy Ivanov. Ivanov opened his MMA career with a 16-0 record.

Before we look at the best bets for the Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk matchup on the UFC 302 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting pick for the main event of UFC 302, Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier.

UFC 302 betting picks: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov

FightersBetOnline ReviewBovadaBetUS ReviewMyBookie Review
Jailton Almeida-255-275-260-285
Alexander Romanov+215+220+210+214

Jailton Almeida betting breakdown

Jailton Almeida has shown himself to be one of the more athletic fighters in the UFC’s heavyweight division. The black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu has 12 career submission victories, three of which have come under the UFC banner. Almeida started his UFC run as a light heavyweight, and he is not a particularly big heavyweight, but his skills and fitness set him apart from his peers in the division and give him the advantage when it comes to grappling and avoiding the strikes of his opponents.

Almeida can sometimes take the path of least resistance in his fights, something he did when he faced a step-up in competition against Derrick Lewis in November. He exploited Lewis’ lack of takedown defense and ground game, racking up six takedowns and 21:10 of control time in the five-round contest. He attempted the same against Curtis Blaydes. Almeida dominated the first round of that meeting, earning nine takedowns and 4:39 of control time in five minutes. However, things did not go well for Almeida in the second round. While latched on to a single leg takedown attempt, Blaydes unloaded punches to the side of his opponent’s head, earning the stoppage win. Almeida showed a lack of situational awareness in that loss. The 32-year-old needs to use that setback as an opportunity to learn.

Almeida lands 2.54 significant strikes per minute with a 64 percent accuracy. His striking defense is 40 percent, and he absorbs only .0.74 significant strikes per minute. Almeida lands an impressive 6.88 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 59 percent. Meanwhile, Almeida’s takedown defense is 75 percent.

Jailton Almeida TO BEAT ALEXANDER ROMANOV
★★★★★
-255
Bet now

Alexander Romanov betting breakdown

The last two times Alexander Romanov fought up in the UFC heavyweight rankings, he failed to pick up a win, losing to Marcin Tybura by decision and by knockout to Alexander Volkov. He looks to break that streak when he competes at UFC 302.

Before he lost to Tybura, Romanov was a high-pressure fighter who was in good physical shape. Over the past few years, Romanov has put on weight and become less aggressive. Like Almeida, he does his best work on the mat, but his wrestling and takedowns are not up to par with those of his UFC 302 opponent. Romanov is a fairly active striker, but his takedown defense is not great. If he doesn’t come into this fight in the best shape of his UFC career and ready to go a tough 15 minutes against an athletic foe, Romanov will be in trouble in Newark.

Romanov is giving up four inches in reach, which won’t help him against Almeida.

The 33-year-old Romanov lands an average of 4.06 significant strikes per minute with 52 percent accuracy. Romanov’s striking defense is 50 percent, and he absorbs 2.20 significant strikes per minute. Romanov averages 4.32 takedowns per 15 minutes, and he lands 54 percent of his takedown attempts. His takedown defense is 20 percent.

Alexander RomanovTO BEAT JAILTON ALMEIDA
★★★★★
+220
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Best Bets: UFC 302 – Jailton Almeida vs. Alexander Romanov

These two fighters are finishers, but one is a much better fighter and a more well conditioned athlete. The betting pick is for Jailton Almeida to beat Alexander Romanov via submission at UFC 302.

Jailton Almeida TO BEAT ALEXANDER ROMANOV
★★★★★
-260
Bet now

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-view broadcast of UFC 1. He also has extensive experience in esports, particularly League of Legends and Counter Strike, dating back to the game's launch.