- What: UFC Vegas 86 Main Event
- Who: Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer
- Date: Saturday, February 10, 2024
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET) PPV Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
The UFC is at the Apex this weekend for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 86 fight card. In the main event, veteran middleweight Jack Hermansson looks to hand the surging Joe Pyfer the first loss of his UFC career. Hermansson enters the contest as the No. 10 fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings. Pyfer is unranked heading into UFC Vegas 86. Here is some information on Hermansson and Pyfer before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC Vegas 86 fight card.
Jack Hermansson (23-8) has been competing under the UFC banner since 2016. Hermansson is coming off a December 2022 TKO loss to Roman Dolidze. He has alternated wins and losses in his past eight fights and has never lost back-to-back bouts with the UFC. Hermansson is 2-3 in his past five outings. He was the betting favorite in three of those scraps and one twice. He lost both bouts where he was the betting underdog.
Joe Pyfer (12-2) earned his UFC contract with a TKO win on a 2022 Dana White Contender Series fight card. He has since gone 3-0 under the UFC banner. Pyfer has been the betting favorite in each of his three UFC matchups.
UFC Vegas 86 Main Event Bets: Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer betting picks
|To Win UFC Vegas 86 Main Event
Jack Hermansson betting breakdown
Jack Hermansson may have more knockout wins than submission victories, but the 35-year-old middleweight is best known for his grappling skills. All of Hermansson’s knockout wins came earlier in his career. He has not earned a stoppage via strikes since May 2018 when he finished Thales Leites at UFC 224. Since then, Hermansson has picked up three submission victories and three wins via decision. Of his four losses during that time, two have been via TKO and two by way of decision.
Hermansson is a strong grappler. If he can get the fight to the mat he is good at keeping the fight there and dominating on the ground. He’s also willing to put himself in harm’s way in order to get the fight where he wants it. The Swedish fighter is a high-output striker who uses his punches and kicks to complement his grappling game, but he has not shown one-punch stopping power as of late. Another admirable part of Hermansson’s strategy is his ability and willingness to stick to his game plan during a fight.
Hermansson lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute and has an accuracy rate of 44 percent. He absorbs 3.69 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 55 percent. Hermansson averages 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown success rate of 29 percent. His takedown defense is 75 percent.
Joe Pyfer betting breakdown
The UFC has been very high on Joe Pyfer since he broke into the promotion with a fearsome knockout on a Dana White Contender Series fight card. Pyfer is a pressure fighter who hits as hard as any fighter in the UFC’s middleweight division. He can wrestle and handle himself well on the mat. Still, his bread and butter, and the reason he is headlining UFC Vegas 86 against an established opponent like Jack Hermansson, is his ability to score one-punch highlight-reel knockouts.
Pyfer trusts his power and his chin, and because of that, he can sometimes leave himself open for counters. The good thing for Pyfer is that Hermansson does not usually display the type of power that would enable him to capitalize on those opportunities. Pyfer’s best bet is to remain calm in this matchup, move forward, close distance, and force Hermansson against the cage where he can trap him and use his punching power to end the fight.
Pyfer averages 3.64 significant strikes per minute and has a 45 percent significant striking rate. He gets hit 2.34 times per 60 seconds, and his defensive striking percentage is 55 percent. Pyfer averages 2.97 takedowns per 15 minutes with a success rate of 83 percent, and his takedown defense is 50 percent.
Best Bets: UFC Vegas 86 Main Event – Jack Hermansson vs. Joe Pyfer
One big concern heading into this fight is that we have yet to see Joe Pyfer face top-level talent who can go five rounds. Pyfer has not gone the distance since his second pro fight in 2018, and he has yet to fight two complete rounds under the UFC banner. This means if Jack Hermansson can extend Pyfer deep into this fight, Hermansson might have a chance to pull off the upset victory. I don’t know if that will happen because Pyfer has five rounds to catch Hermansson’s chin and as he has shown, he only needs one punch to end the scrap.
The betting pick is for Pyfer to get the knockout before the end of the third round.
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