Best UFC 302 Betting Picks: Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

  • What: UFC 302
  • Who: Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
  • Date: Saturday, June 1, 2024
  • Location: Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey
  • Time: Early Prelims (6:15 p.m. ET), Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET), Pay-Per-View Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
  • How to Watch:  Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (ESPN2, ESPN+), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)

The first of two UFC pay-per-view events in June takes place on Saturday, June 1, when UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev puts his title on the line against Dustin Poirier. In the co-main event, UFC middleweight contenders Sean Strickland and Paulo Costa face off in an important matchup.  Before those bouts, Kevin Holland faces Michal Oleksiejczuk in another middleweight scrap. Here is some background on Holland and Oleksiejczuk before we look at the betting breakdown of UFC 302.

Kevin Holland (25-11-0-1) is riding a two-fight losing skid ahead of UFC 302. Despite those setbacks, Holland is the No. 15 fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings. His most recent defeat came in March when Michael Page defeated him via unanimous decision.

Michal Oleksiejczuk (19-7-01) is unranked in the UFC. He has alternated wins and losses in his past four outings and is coming off a March submission loss to Michel Pereira.

Before we look at the best bets for the Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk matchup on the UFC 302 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find our betting pick for the main event of UFC 302, Islam Makhachev vs. Dustin Poirier.

UFC 302 betting picks: Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

FightersBetOnline ReviewBovadaBetUS ReviewMyBookie Review
Kevin Holland-260-250-250-255
Michal Oleksiejczuk+200+200+200+191

Kevin Holland betting breakdown

Kevin Holland has a diverse skill set but is mainly known for his striking. He uses volume over power on the feet, switching up his stances and mixing up his targets. In his loss to Jack Della Maddalena, Holland went to the head of his opponent 46 percent of the time, 25 percent to the body, and 27 percent to Della Maddalena’s legs. In that contest, Holland attempted 356 significant strikes and landed 127. Against Page, Holland struggled to close to distance and deal with the movement and speed of his opponent.

In addition to his striking talents, Holland is more than capable on the mat, with seven career submission victories, including a recent D’arce choke stoppage of Michael Chiesa.

One knock against Holland is that he sometimes puts entertainment above victory, which worked against him when he refused to use his grappling in a loss to the more talented striker Stephen Thompson in December 2022.

Holland has a seven-inch reach advantage over Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 302. Holland lands 4.24 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy of 49 percent. His striking defense is 50 percent, and he absorbs 3.19 significant strikes per minute. Holland has a 38 percent takedown accuracy and lands 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown defense is 54 percent.

Kevin Holland TO BEAT MICHEL OLEKSIEJCZUK
★★★★★
-260
Bet now

Michal Oleksiejczuk betting breakdown

Michal Oleksiejczuk is a brawler. He does not have the technical skills of his opponent in this matchup, but he never stops moving forward and is always looking for an opening where he can land one of his power punches to put the fight away. Where Holland employs a mix of techniques and targets, Oleksiejczuk usually throws punches and usually targets the head. In his win over Chidi Njokuani, 70 percent of Oleksiejczuk’s landed strikes were to the head of his opponent. Fourteen of his career wins have come by way of knockout.

Oleksiejczuk is not afraid to take damage in his efforts to close distance. His height in this fight will allow Holland to land kicks from distance, and if Holland has watched footage of Oleksiejczuk’s previous outings, he’ll know that Oleksiejczuk does not take body blows particularly well.

The key for Oleksiejczuk in this fight is to get inside and land as many power strikes he can while preventing Holland from setting the pace and distance of the fight. That’s a large ask of Oleksiejczuk.

Oleksiejczuk averages 5.06 significant strikes landed per minute with an accuracy of 50 percent. He absorbs 4.26 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 61 percent. Oleksiejczuk averages 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 44 percent. His takedown defense is 48 percent.

Michal OleksiejczukTO BEAT KEVIN HOLLAND
★★★★★
+200
Bet now

Best Bets: UFC 302 – Kevin Holland vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Kevin Holland is the more technical and talented fighter in this matchup. Michal Oleksiejczuk is tough and resilient, but he lacks the skills that will allow him to get close enough to tag Holland with a power punch that can end this fight. The betting pick is for Kevin Holland to win. As for the outcome of the fight, there is betting value on wagering on Holland to get a submission win in the second half of the three-round contest.

Kevin Holland TO BEAT MICHEL OLEKSIEJCZUK
★★★★★
-260
Bet now

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-view broadcast of UFC 1. He also has extensive experience in esports, particularly League of Legends and Counter Strike, dating back to the game's launch.