- What: UFC on ESPN+ 84
- Who: Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac
- Date: Saturday, September 2, 2023
- Location: Accor Arena in Paris, France
- Time: Prelims (12:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (3:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
Saturday’s UFC Paris fight card is another early affair, with the main card of the UFC on ESPN+ 84 event starting at 3 p.m. ET. The headlining scrap features Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac. The heavyweight contest pits Gane, who is the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC heavyweight rankings, against the No. 7 ranked Spivak. Here is some background on the Gane vs. Spivac scrap before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC Paris / UFC on ESPN+ 84 fight card.
Ciryl Gane (11-2) was thought by many to be the future of the UFC heavyweight division. He won the interim UFC heavyweight crown in August 2021 with a knockout victory over Derrick Lewis, but he has since gone 1-2 with both losses coming in title fights. He lost to Francis Ngannou in a unification bout in January 2022 and then to Jon Jones in March 2023 in a scrap for the vacant UFC title. Between those defeats, Gane knocked out Tai Tuivasa.
Serghei Spivac (16-3) is coming off a February submission win over Derrick Lewis. The former WWFC champion is 7-3 in the UFC, with losses to Walt Harris, Marcin Tybura and Tom Aspinall. His matchup against Lewis stands as the toughest test of his career, at least until he steps into the octagon in Paris opposite Gane.
UFC on ESPN+ 84 main event: Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac betting picks
|To Win UFC Paris Main Event
UFC on ESPN+ 84 main event: Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac betting breakdown
Ciryl Gane is an incredibly patient and technical striker. His goal is to do damage and leave the cage without taking punishment in return. That style can anger fans, but unlike some other fighters, Gane refuses to let the fans dictate his approach. He does not rush blindly into things, and he will wait until his opponent creates an opening. Additionally, for a fighter as big as Gane is, he is nimble and athletic, thanks to his background in kickboxing.
Gane is coming off a disappointing performance in his loss to Jon Jones. He offered little to no defense once Jones got the fight to the mat, and that’s something Spivac and his team will have in their minds as they prepare for this fight.
Serghei Spivac has been with the UFC for three years. During that time, he’s racked up the third most takedowns in the history of the UFC heavyweight division with 27. In his past three fights, none of which went past the 3:42 mark of Round 2, Spivac has accumulated a whopping 15 takedowns. Knowing that Jones went two-for-two on takedowns against Gane and that Ngannou went four-for-five, expect Spivac to look to close distance and get the fight to that mat. If he can do that, Spivac, who has a top position percentage of 36.5 percent, could prove to be a real problem for Gane.
UFC on ESPN+ 84 main event: Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac statistical breakdown
Styles make fights, and this one will come down to which fighter can implement their game plan over five rounds or however long the bout lasts.
Gane is a striker, and while he is patient and selective in his approach, he lands at a fairly high clip, connecting on 5.08 significant strikes per minute, which exceeds Spivac’s 3.79 significant strikes per minute by a fair amount. Gane also lands at a higher rate than his foe (59 percent to 51 percent) and is better defensively, absorbing 2.25 significant strikes per minute as compared to Spivac’s 2.84. If Gane is to win this fight, he will do so via his striking.
As for Spivac, he can strike and has seven knockout wins, but he has yet to face a striker of the caliber of Gane. With that in mind, Spivac’s best bet is to get in close and do everything he can to get the fight to the mat. His average of 5.05 takedowns per 15 minutes shows he is comfortable with that. Another thing to note is that Gane does not defend takedowns particularly well, especially against opponents who know how to complete their takedowns. Grappling and top position are the keys to a Spivac win in Paris.
Best Bets for UFC on ESPN+ 84 Main Event: Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac
If Serghei Spivac had more high-level UFC wins, my betting pick would be for him to defeat Ciryl Gane through his wrestling and ground skills. However, Spivac’s resume is not very deep outside of his win over Derrick Lewis. This contest will be an enormous test for him, and I won’t be surprised if he wins. However, while there is value in betting on Spivac, he’s not the heavyweight I’m wagering on to win in Paris.
Gane has only lost to two of the best fighters in the UFC, Ngannou and Jones. Plus, he’s fighting in front of a home crowd in Paris. The last time he did so under the UFC banner, he knocked out Tai Tuivasa.
Because of his skill, patience, and high-level experience, Gane is the betting pick for UFC on ESPN+ 84. As for the fight’s outcome, Gane is a slow starter, but he can take advantage of opportunities and openings. With his striking prowess, I’d bet Gane to win via knockout in the second half of the contest, but there’s always the chance that he cruises to a decision victory.
Best UFC on ESPN+ 84 Main event betting pick: Ciryl Game to beat Serghei Spivac by knockout.
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