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- What: UFC Vegas 79
- Who: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos
- Date: Saturday, August 12, 2023
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Prelims (ESPN+, ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+, ESPN)
UFC Vegas 79 features a significant welterweight fight as its main event. That contest pits Vicente Luque against former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos. Luque is the No. 10 fighter in the official UFC welterweight rankings. Meanwhile, Dos Anjos is No .9 in the promotion’s official lightweight rankings. Here is some background on the Luque vs. Dos Anjos booking before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC Vegas 79 fight card.
Vicente Luque (21-91-1) climbed the UFC welterweight ranks between December 2015 and April 2022. Luque went 14-2 over that span and picked up eight fight-night bonus awards. However, the tide has turned for the 31-year-old. Luque is 0-2 in his past two UFC outings, dropping bouts to Geoff Neal and Belal Muhammad.
Rafael dos Anjos (32-14), a member of the UFC since 2008 and a UFC champ between March 2015 and July 2016, is at the point of his career where he is interested, and competing, in fights that pique his competitive interests. With that, the 38-year-old is looking at Saturday’s main event contest as a way to stake his claim in the top 10 of the welterweight division. Dos Anjos is coming off a submission win over Bryan Barberena at 170 pounds in December.
Before we look at the best bets for Luque vs. Dos Anjos on the UFC Vegas 79 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Vegas 79 main event: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos betting picks
| To Win UFC Vegas 79 Main Event |  |  |  |  |
| Vicente Luque | +105 | +105 | -105 | -105 |
| Rafael dos Anjos | -125 | -125 | -125 | -125 |
UFC Vegas 79: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos betting breakdown
Vicente Luque needs a win in a big way, as his stock has fallen considerably over the past two years. Following his UFC 265 submission win over Michael Chiesa, Luque moved to No. 4 in the official UFC welterweight rankings. That win earned Luque the backup role for the UFC 268 welterweight title fight between Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. Luque came in overweight for that role. Thankfully the promotion did not need him that night. Since then, Luque has gone 0-2 with a decision loss to Belal Muhammad and a knockout setback to Geoff Neal. He is close to dropping out of the UFC welterweight top 10.
Dos Anjos is in the “fun fight” stage of his career. Would he like to make another run at UFC gold? I’m sure he would. A win over a fighter like Luque, who seemed to be one win away from a title fight less than two years ago will put the former UFC lightweight champion and ex-interim welterweight title challenger back in the mix at 170 pounds.
Both these fighters are excellent all-around competitors. However, Neal exposed a massive gap in Luque’s game, and that gap was his striking defense against a southpaw. Neal’s left hand easily broke through Luque’s guard throughout the fight, bloodying him and doing a lot of damage before he used that hand to drop Luque with numerous heavy uppercuts and hooks in the third round. Neal connected on 57 percent of his significant strikes throughout the bout. Like Neal, Dos Anjos is a southpaw, and you can rest assured that he saw how the Neal bout played out for his opponent.
UFC Vegas 79: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos statistical breakdown
Size could come into play in this fight, as Luque has a three-inch height advantage and six inches in reach on his foe. However, Dos Anjos has always done an admirable job closing distance and working close against the cage. If he can get inside and pressure Luque to the fence, that advantage will be negated, allowing Dos Anjos to threaten takedowns and pepper Luque with his powerful left hand.
As for striking, Luque is the more active of the two, landing 5.49 significant strikes per minute to Dos Anjos’ 3.56, but Luque also gets hit more than Dos Anjos, absorbing an average of 5.51 significant strikes per minute, while Dos Anjos gets hit 3.21 times per minute. As for grappling, Dos Anjos has a much higher takedown average than Luque, picking up 2.05 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Luque averages 0.5 per 15 minutes of action.
Luque has 11 knockout wins and eight submission victories on his record. His only previous five-round fight was his decision loss to Belal Muhammad. Dos Anjos has five KO wins and 11 submission triumphs in his career.
Neal was the first fighter to score a knockout over Luque, while Dos Anjos has been knocked out four times, most recently getting stopped by Rafael Fiziev. As for submission setbacks, no one has forced Dos Anjos to tap, while Luque has two pre-UFC submission losses on his record.
UFC Vegas 79: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos – who has the edge
Barring a shift in the betting odds, UFC Vegas 79 will mark the first time in his 20-fight UFC career that Luque will enter the octagon as an underdog. That’s significant. From my perspective, Luque needs to show that the Neal loss was just a blip on the radar and that he has shored up his southpaw striking defense. He must also show that his takedown defense has improved from the Belal Muhammad fight. During that five-round scrap, Muhammad went 5-for-10 in takedowns and picked up more than seven minutes of control time. As a lightweight, Dos Anjos was one of the all-time best in getting the fight to the mat, with 47 career 155-pound takedowns, and keeping it there, with nearly 90 minutes of career control time.
Best bets for UFC Vegas 79: Vicente Luque vs. Rafael dos Anjos
This is a great matchup on paper, and the winner will be in an excellent position going forward. There are too many questions facing Luque heading into this matchup, which prevents me from picking him to win. Can he win? Of course, but the gaps in his game that have become apparent in his past two outings and the level of veteran savvy Dos Anjos brings with him into UFC Vegas 79, have me leaning toward the former UFC lightweight champ. The best betting pick for Luque vs. Dos Anjos is to pick Dos Anjos to win. For those looking for prop bets, there’s a chance that Dos Anjos will pick up a stoppage in the second half of the fight. There’s also the chance that Luque will pick up a knockout win at some point.
All in all, this is great matchmaking and should make for a fun fight.
Best UFC Vegas 79 betting pick: Rafael dos Anjos to beat Vicente Luque via decision.
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