- What: UFC Vegas 85 Co-Main Event
- Who: Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober
- Date: Saturday, February 3, 2024
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET) PPV Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
A notable middleweight contest headlines the next UFC Fight Night event. In that matchup, which takes place on Saturday, February 3, from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, the No. 8 fighter in the official UFC middleweight rankings, Roman Dolidze, faces the No. 11 ranked Nassourdine Imavov. Before those two face off, Renato Moicano and Drew Dober scrap in the evening’s lightweight co-main event. Here is some information on Moicano and Dober before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC Vegas 85 fight card.
Renato Moicano (17-5-1) is the No. 13 fighter in the official UFC lightweight rankings. He is coming off a November 2022 submission win over Brad Riddell. Moicano is 3-2 in his past five outings. Moicano won the three fights where he was the betting favorite and lost the two where he was the betting underdog.
Drew Dober (27-12-0-1) is No. 15 in the official UFC 155-pound rankings. His last fight was an October 2023 TKO win over Ricky Glenn. Dober is 4-1 in his past five contests. He was the betting favorite in each of those contests. Betting underdog Matt Frevola knocked out Dober in May 2023.
Before we look at the best bets for the Moicano vs Dober matchup on the UFC Vegas 85 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting pick for the main event of UFC Vegas 85: Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov.
UFC Vegas 85 Co-Main Event: Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober betting picks
Renato Moicano betting breakdown
UFC Vegas 85 marks the first fight for Renato Moicano in well over a year. The UFC booked the 34-year-old against Arman Tsarukyan for an April 2023 scrap, but Moicano withdrew from that event because of a knee injury that required surgery.
Moicano is best known for his submission skills. The Brazilian has 10 career submission wins and seven decision victories in his MMA career. Moicano has picked up six of those submission victories under the UFC banner. He joined the promotion in 2014. Along with his grappling skills, Moicano is a solid technical striker who can set and sustain a good pace throughout his fights. He also throws his strikes in volume, works well behind his jab, and is impressive in controlling the range where his fights take place. The majority of Moicano’s strikes target the head. In his five-round contests against former UFC lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos, 87 percent of Moicano’s significant strikes targeted his foe’s head. Dos Anjos won that scrap via decision.
If there is a knock against Moicano, it’s that his chin doesn’t always hold up when he gets tagged. That’s not great for a fighter who lands 4.75 significant strikes per minute while getting hit at 4.07 per 60 seconds. Three of Moicano’s losses have come via knockout. All those defeats have come while he has been a member of the UFC roster.
Drew Dober betting breakdown
Drew Dober has become a fan favorite over the years. His past seven wins with the UFC have all come via knockout, and he has 14 career KO victories. The last time he went the distance was in June 2021, when he dropped a decision to Brad Riddell in a “Fight of the Night” bonus-winning battle. Dober is not a technical striker. He is a brawler. The American is the kind of fighter who takes a strike to give a strike. His significant strike landing rate is 4.58 per minute, while he absorbs 4.46 significant strikes per minute. Dober’s 10 career UFC knockouts rank him fourth all-time in UFC lightweight history. Dober has two knockout losses and four submission setbacks. Despite his knockout losses, Dober’s chin is much sturdier than Moicano’s.
Dober’s strength, outside of his chin, is his ability to get his foe to fight the kind of fight, a brawl on the feet, that benefits his style.
One concern for Dober in this matchup is takedown defense. He only stops 56 percent of the takedowns his opponents attempt. He is much more comfortable on his feet than on the mat, but he does have a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Best Bets: UFC Vegas 85 Co-Main Event – Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober
Renato Moicano has shown patience in his past few outings, and he will need that for this matchup. Drew Dober will look to draw him into a firefight and end the contest with powerful strikes. Moicano cannot allow that to happen if he wants to win this scrap. The Brazilian needs to be patient, work his striking angles, fight behind his jab, and seize opportunities to get the fight to the mat. If he can do that, the fight is his to lose. However, if Dober can impose his will, there’s a good chance that Dober will win the fight via knockout.
Look for Moicano, who is the betting favorite, to fight like he did against Ridell, confidently and patiently using his jab to hurt his opponent and then getting the fight to the mat where his grappling skills can take time off the clock and frustrate Dober. As for the betting underdog, Dober’s best chance is to get Moicano involved in a slugfest and score the upset knockout.
Best UFC Vegas 85 Co-Main Event Betting Pick: Renato Moicano to win via submission, but there is betting value in picking Drew Dober to get the knockout.
See below a list of reliable sportsbooks and choose the best one for you.