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- What: UFC Vegas 88 Main Event
- Who: Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
- Date: Saturday, March 16, 2024
- Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Prelims (4:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (7:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
A battle between two UFC heavyweights who are both ranked inside the top 10 takes place this week at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. In that contest, which headlines the UFC Vegas 88 fight card on ESPN+, Tai Tuivasa faces Marcin Tybura. Here is some background on the fighters before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC Vegas 88.
Tai Tuivasa (14-6) is No. 9 in the official UFC heavyweight rankings. The 30-year-old is riding a three-fight losing skid, with each of those setbacks coming by way of stoppage. Tuivasa has 13 knockout wins in his career. He is coming off a September 2023 submission loss to Alexander Volkov.
Marcin Tybura (24-8) is the No. 10 fighter in the UFC’s heavyweight division. The 38-year-old is 2-1 in his past three UFC outings and coming off a July 2023 TKO loss to Tom Aspinall. Tybura has nine knockout wins and six submission victories in his MMA career.
Before we look at the best bets for the Tuivasa vs. Tybura matchup on the UFC Vegas 88 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.
UFC Vegas 88 main event: Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Tai Tuivasa | -125 | -130 | -130 | -130 |
| Marcin Tybura | +105 | +110 | Even | Even |
Tai Tuivasa betting breakdown
A fan favorite for his aggression and willingness to brawl inside the Octagon, Tai Tuivasa looks to avoid the first four-fight losing skid of his UFC career. Tuivasa previously dropped three straight fights between December 2018 and October 2019, but he came out of that slump with a first-round knockout of Stefan Struve. He followed that win with four straight knockout wins.
Tuivasa is a brawler. He relies on his power and ability to take a shot to secure victories. Of his 20 professional MMA bouts, only two have gone the distance, and both of those came before July 2019. Everyone knows what Tuivasa brings with him, but not everyone can stop him. His five-fight winning streak included a February 2022 KO win over Derrick Lewis.
Tuivasa lands 3.98 significant strikes per minute, but he gets hit at a rate of 4.98 significant strikes per minute, which is worrisome for a heavyweight. Further, Tuivasa’s striking defense of 43 percent is low. Tuivasa is not a ground fighter. He does not shoot takedowns, but he has a takedown defense of 54 percent.
Marcin Tybura betting breakdown
Marcin Tybura was up and down during his early days with the UFC, posting a 4-5 record with the promotion between April 2016 and September 2019. However, Tybura found his groove after that, winning five straight before falling to Alexander Volkov via decision at UFC 267. Following that setback, Tybura picked up two decision wins before losing to Aspinall via TKO. One thing to note ahead of Tybura’s fight with Tuivasa is that five of his career defeats have come via knockout.
Tybura is a grinding fighter. He’s generally durable, he has gone the distance 12 times in his career, including three of his past four UFC matchups. However, Tybura is not a very active striker, instead he waits for opportunities and then throws punches in bunches. If he gets the fight to the mat, Tybura is effective with his ground strikes.
Tybura lands 3.55 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy rate of 48 percent. He gets tagged, on average, with 3.35 strikes, and he has a striking defense of 55 percent. Tybura averages 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy rate is 33 percent.
Best Bets: UFC Vegas 88 main event – Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
If Tybura were more active in his striking and had a higher number of takedowns per 15 minutes, I could see this fight going his way. However, Tuivasa’s power and willingness to take a shot, or two, to land one of his power strikes has me thinking that UFC Vegas 88’s main event will not go to the betting underdog. There is some betting value in picking Tybura for the decision or submission upset, but the fact that MMA rounds start on the feet has me leaning toward the betting favorite. The betting pick is Tai Tuivasa to beat Marcin Tybura by knockout at UFC Vegas 88.
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