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- What: UFC Fight Night 237 / UFC Mexico City
- Who: Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega 2
- Date: Saturday, February 24, 2024
- Location: Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico
- Time: Prelims (7:00 p.m. ET) Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: ESPN+
The UFC returns to Mexico for the first time in nearly four years for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 fight card. In the main event of the Mexico City card, former UFC flyweight champion Brandon Moreno meets recent UFC 125-pound title challenger Brandon Royval in a rematch. In the UFC Mexico City co-main event, former UFC featherweight title challengers Yair Rodriguez and Brian Ortega run back their 2022 matchup, which ended with Rodriguez winning via first-round TKO after a shoulder injury left Ortega unable to continue. Here is some information on Rodriguez vs. Ortega before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC Fight Night 237 card.
Yair Rodriguez (19-4-0-1) is the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC featherweight rankings. The 31-year-old is coming off a July 2023 TKO loss to then-UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski. Rodriguez had won the interim UFC 145-pound title in his previous outing, a February 2023 submission win over Josh Emmett.
Brian Ortega (15-3-0-1) is on a two-fight losing skid. He dropped a title fight to Alexander Volkanovski in September 2021 and then lost to Rodriguez in 2022. Ortega, who is the No. 4 ranked UFC featherweight, has undergone, according to him, “a couple of surgeries” since that loss.
Before we look at the best bets for the Rodriguez vs. Ortega 2 matchup on the UFC Fight Night 237 card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting pick for the UFC Mexico City main event.
UFC Fight Night 237: Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega 2 betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| Yair Rodriguez | -175 | -175 | -175 | -175 |
| Brian Ortega | +150 | +145 | +145 | +145 |
Yair Rodriguez betting breakdown
Yair Rodriguez is a dynamic striker. His arsenal of striking techniques is deep and unpredictable. The former interim UFC featherweight champion is also an aggressive striker who takes a lot of chances. Rodriguez’s risk-taking ways can open him up to counters. However, he is very good at gauging time and space and, in doing so, avoiding danger. Rodriguez’s style also opens him to takedown attempts, which is something he needs to be aware of against a grappler like Brian Ortega.
Rodriguez must keep this fight at distance, and he can’t allow Ortega to control the pace of the matchup. If he allows Ortega to fight his fight, Rodriguez could be in for a long and difficult night in Mexico City.
Rodriguez lands 4.63 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.07 strikes per minute. His takedown defense is 59 percent and his takedown accuracy is 28 percent. Rodriguez has eight knockout wins, five submission victories, and six triumphs via decision.
Brian Ortega betting breakdown
Brian Ortega is a tough fighter with a solid chin. His two TKO losses have come by way of injury and doctor stoppage, so count on him to be in this fight until the end. Ortega is a top-notch grappler with seven submission wins, but his takedown accuracy is just 23 percent, which is low. However, he has good cardio and he can string takedown attempts together until he gets the fight to the mat.
Ortega is a pressure striker, but his defense is lacking and he absorbs 6.66 significant strikes per minute, which is a worry against a dynamic striker like Rodriguez.
In their first fight, Ortega put pressure on Rodriguez from the start of the fight. He walked him down, and kept moving forward, never giving Rodriguez an opportunity to get set and unleash a sustained striking attack of his own.
Ortega was also able to negate Rodriguez’s striking via clinch work and keeping things as close as possible against the fence. Had the fight not ended when it did, Ortega would have likely been up 1-0 on the scorecards at the end of the first round, but it would have been close because Rodriguez was landing with power.
Best Bets – UFC Mexico City: Yair Rodriguez vs. Brian Ortega 2
This is a difficult fight to predict. Ortega has the skills and ability to shutdown a lot of Rodriguez’s striking attacks. However, Ortega gets hit far too often for me to believe that he won’t absorb at least some damage at the hands of Rodriguez. There’s also the fact that Ortega has not fought in nearly two years and that this bout will be contested at elevation in Mexico City.
Expect a spirited contest on Saturday, but the betting pick is for Yair Rodriguez to pick up a decision win over Brian Ortega at UFC Mexico City.
See below a list of reliable sportsbooks and choose the best one for you.
