Chris Boline
- Poland v Argentina
- Wednesday, November 30, 2022, 14:00 ET
- At Stadium 974, Doha
Argentina were facing elimination from the World Cup but they rescued themselves against Mexico and are the pick of bettors to beat Poland on Wednesday.
Who do Bettors Favor?
According to the best-rated online sportsbooks Argentina are the strong favorites to win this game with bettors, who have backed them to as short as -225 with some bookmakers. Poland are rated as underdogs, available at anything from +650 to +785, while the draw is around the +340 mark.
| Poland v Argentina |  |  |  |
| Poland | +785 | +650 | +725 |
| Draw | +335 | +340 | +310 |
| Argentina | -220 | -224 | -225 |
World Cup Group C Betting Briefing
After the excitement of the opening round of fixtures when the football world was stunned by Saudi Arabia’s win over Argentina, the second round of Group C games produced more predictable outcomes, though all four teams can still qualify going into this round of matches.
Poland are top of the table, and a draw against Argentina would probably see them top the Group, although they could be beaten to that prize if Saudi Arabia were to beat Mexico in their final game. For Argentina, meanwhile, the calculations are simple. Beat Poland and go through. A draw may be enough, but that would depend on Mexico not beating Saudi Arabia by four or more.
In some Groups, the difference between finishing first or second appears negligible, but that is not the case in Group C. The runner-up here will almost certainly be playing France in the Round of 16, while the Group winner will face off against Denmark, Australia or Tunisia, a vastly preferable alternative.
Poland Grinding Out Results
Poland has not been particularly eye-catching so far in this tournament, but they have been grinding out results, earning a draw against Mexico and staying patient to get a win against Saudi Arabia, and that has been good enough to take them top of the table going into the final round.
So far, they have been the most direct team in the competition, playing a higher percentage of long balls than any other team, which can be effective against opponents who aren’t used to those kinds of tactics, and which makes sense given the presence of a top quality striker in Robert Lewandowski.
That said, their approach hasn’t been very efficient. They rank in the bottom quarter of all teams at the World Cup for chances created, and they have also relied heavily on Wojciech Szczesny, who has so far kept two clean sheets, making vital saves at key moments.
Argentina Back on Track
After a shock opening game defeat to Saudi Arabia, Argentina got back on track with a nervy but solid victory over Mexico to set up this chance of winning the Group.
A closer look at the stats from that Saudi game, however, showed that Lionel Scaloni’s men were extremely fortunate to lose, having made more than enough chances to win the game, while their opponents only managed three shots on goal, yet scored from two of them.
In fact, they probably played more poorly against Mexico, yet ended up with a 2-0 win, although it wasn’t until Lionel Messi set up Enzo Fernandez for the second goal three minutes from time that Argentine players and fans could relax.
That unpredictability is the nature of a low-scoring sport like soccer, but teams that are not sufficiently resolute and together can buckle under the pressure of losing to a team they are expected to beat. It is perhaps no coincidence that Argentina has the fourth-oldest squad in the tournament, full of players who have experienced all of the highs and the lows that the sport has to offer.
World Cup Group C Match Betting
Poland’s gameplan here will be simple: they will try to break up the Argentine passing game as high up the pitch as possible and in possession will go long toward Lewandowski.
It is a plan that tends to produce low-scoring games. In their last five games ahead of the World Cup, Poland had been involved in three 1-0 games and a goalless draw, and their two matches in Qatar have produced a total of two goals. Clearly, they are hard to score against and with one of the modern striking greats at the other end, will always pose a threat.
A draw here may still be enough to see Argentina through, but they will be going all out for the win. Victory would see them top the Group and avoid France in the Round of 16. It would also continue the momentum gained by their win over Mexico. They will have to stay patient but they have the class and resilience to edge this one and look the best pick in the Match Betting market.
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