Boxing Betting This Month | Canelo Returns, Fight Trends & Market Watch | October 2026

by Daniel Feliciano

Updated: October 1, 2026

October is set to be a huge month in the boxing world as Canelo ‘Saul’ Alvarez returns to the ring for the first time in over a year to take on Christian Mbilli on October 31st in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

With the WBC Super Middleweight title on the line, the Mexican fighter will be keen to get back in the win column following defeat to Terrence Crawford in his last outing back in September 2025.

Elsewhere, we’ll also see a huge rematch in the heavyweight division as two-time world champion Daniel Dubois takes on Fabio Wardley, in a repeat of their war from earlier this year.

Below, we’ll look at the biggest boxing storylines for October, recent market movement, and the key angles bettors should watch throughout the month. For more boxing betting, check out our Boxing Betting Guide, which includes all the information you need to bet on the sport, as well as guides to the best boxing betting sites.

The biggest betting storylines this month

• Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez returns to the ring: Considered to be the face of the sport for a long time, Canelo has been absent for a year now following defeat in his last bout against Terrence Crawford in a relatively one-sided fight. Now he takes on Christian Mbilli in a WBC Super Middleweight title fight, who is undefeated with a 29-0-1 record, including 24 knockouts.
• Daniel Dubois vs Fabio Wardley 2: May saw one of the most exciting heavyweight fights in a long time between the two British stars, with Dubois claiming an 11th-round stoppage win despite having been knocked down twice. Now he’ll defend the title he won in a rematch.
• Dalton Smith to fight Alberto Puello: The undefeated Dalton Smith puts his 19-0 record on the line, alongside his WBC light-welterweight title, when he steps into the ring to fight former champion Alberto Puello in Sheffield on October 24th.
• Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury finally official: After years of talks, and months of speculation, Anthony Joshua’s fight with Tyson Fury has finally been made official for December 11th in Cardiff, Wales, for the vacant WBA Super Heavyweight championship.
• Shakur Stevenson vs Manny Pacquiao plans fall through: A proposed fight between Shakur Stevenson and Manny Pacquiao on the Anthony Joshua vs Tyson Fury card is no longer expected to happen. Stevenson has instead been linked with a title unification fight against Gary Antuanne Russell, while Pacquiao could face a different opponent on the December 11th card.

Biggest futures, outright and win total moves this month

There has been some significant movement in the betting markets for boxing this month, and this is a closer look at some of the action worth tracking for bettors.

• Anthony Joshua vs Tyson Fury

Anthony Joshua and Tyson Fury have finally signed and agreed to a deal that will see them square off in the ring at Cardiff’s Principality Stadium on December 11th, 2026.

There is no rematch clause in the deal, meaning it will be a one-and-done bout. Talks are continuing over what time the fight will actually take place, with some speculation that it could happen in the early hours of the morning locally, to maximise the potential of viewership in the United States.

Both fighters are coming into the fight on the back of winning their last two fights. Fury defeated Arslanbek Makhmudov via unanimous decision back in April, before earning a seventh-round knockout win over Mariusz Wach in July in a low-key affair in Thailand.

Joshua, on the other hand, knocked out Jake Paul in December 2025, before recovering from two knockdowns in the first round against Kristian Prenga to claim a second-round knockout victory.

The official announcement has seen plenty of movement in the betting, with Fury moving from -180 to -200 with some bookmakers, while Joshua has drifted from +144 to +168 since the official announcement.

• Ryan Garcia pushing for Terrence Crawford fight

Ryan Garcia proved he is a worthy WBC welterweight champion by knocking out rival Conor Benn in the second round with a vicious hook.

Since that fight, he has been publicly pushing for a fight against a pound-for-pound legend Terrence Crawford, who has been hinting at a potential return to the ring following his retirement last year after defeating Canelo Alvarez.

If that fight doesn’t happen, Garcia has also called out Teofimo Lopez and Devin Haney as he looks to strengthen his position at 147 pounds.

Futures market check

Looking forward to future matchups in the world of boxing, there are some interesting lines beginning to appear on the market.

• Canelo Alvarez (-225) vs Christian Mbilli (+250)

Canelo has been the favorite to return to the ring with a victory against Mbilli, who is a Canadian knockout artist who has been the super middleweight champion since June 2025.

Alvarez has a stunning 63-3-2 record in his career and is still widely considered to be the face of boxing, but he knows he must win this fight or face his career at the highest level being over. Mbilli has a near-perfect 29-0-1 record, including 24 knockouts, but fought to a draw against Lester Martinez in his most recent bout.

Canelo opened in the betting as a -300 favorite for the fight, but he has since shortened to as low as -225. Mbilli, meanwhile, opened as a +230 underdog, and can now be found at around +250 if you fancy the upset.

This fight was delayed from September 12th, with Canelo dealing with some personal issues, and it’s possible that could have had an impact on the market movements.

🥊 Tyson Fury vs Anthony Joshua

💫 Years in the making. One night to settle it.

📆 December 11th
📍 Principality Stadium, Cardiff, UK
📺 LIVE on Netflix | Ring Magazine pic.twitter.com/1AFyUYVMA5

— Ring Magazine (@ringmagazine) September 24, 2026

What could move odds before next month’s update

It’s possible that there could be some official fight announcements coming in the near future.

• Shakur Stevenson is searching for his next fight after signing with Zuffa Boxing. The proposed bout against Manny Pacquiao is no longer expected to happen, while an offer has been made for Stevenson to face Gary Antuanne Russell in a title unification fight.
• Although Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua’s fight is now official, it’s been reported that there have been talks for Fury to fight David Benavidez instead should the fight fall out for any reason. That suggests Benavidez is ready to step up in weight, which could make for some fun matchups.
• After Jai Opetaia claimed a dominant win over Noel Mikaelian to move to 31-0, there has been talk that he could fight Benavidez should ‘The Mexican Monster’ opt to stay at cruiserweight, putting two undefeated superstars in the ring together in their prime.
• Should Terence Crawford make his return to the ring official, there are likely to be a number of opponents queuing up to welcome him back, including Jaron ‘Boots’ Ennis, following their face-to-face altercation recently.

Previous betting news updates

• [September 2026]: The Anthony Joshua vs Tyson Fury fight was made official for December 11th, 2026, at Principality Stadium in Cardiff, Wales. The vacant WBA ‘Super’ Heavyweight title will be on the line.
• [September 2026]: Ryan Garcia stopped Conor Benn at 1:25 of the second round on September 12th to retain his WBC welterweight title.
• [September 2026]: Jai Opetaia remained unbeaten by stopping Noel Mikaelian in the ninth round on the Garcia-Benn undercard in Las Vegas.
• [September 2026]: Katie Taylor defeated Flora Pili by unanimous decision at Croke Park on September 5th and retired as the undisputed super lightweight champion.
• [September 2026]: Damian Knyba dropped Andy Ruiz Jr. in the seventh round and went on to beat the former heavyweight champion by unanimous decision on September 4th.
• [August 2026]: Filip Hrgovic claimed a stunning ninth-round stoppage win over Moses Itauma on August 29, winning the vacant IBF heavyweight title.
• [August 2026]: Teofimo Lopez claimed a majority decision win over Rolly Romero to win the WBA (Super) Welterweight championship on August 22nd.
• [August 2026]: Oleksandr Usyk and Deontay Wilder are in talks over a super fight in 2027.

Daniel Feliciano

Daniel is a football writer who has a great thirst for the Premier League and other major European leagues. A lover of the beautiful game and a firm believer that the eye test is better than statistics. Also an avid MMA fan.