- Who: Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo
- What: Undisputed Super Middleweight World Championship
- Date: Saturday, September 30, 2023
- Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
- How to Watch: Showtime PPV
On September 30, 2023, undisputed super middleweight world champion Canelo Alvarez puts his 168-pound titles on the line against Jermell Charlo. Charlo is the undisputed junior middleweight champion. He is making the rare two-weight division jump to face Alvarez, moving from 154 pounds and skipping the 160-pound middleweight limit in the hopes of making boxing history when the two men face off in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena for their Showtime pay-per-view matchup. Here is some background information before we look at the betting breakdown for the upcoming undisputed middleweight title fight.
Canelo Alvarez (59-2-2 with 39 knockouts) is coming off back-to-back unanimous decision title defenses against Gennady Golovkin and John Ryder following his May 2022 loss to Dmitry Bivol in a light heavyweight title fight. That loss was Alvarez’s first setback since he dropped a majority decision to Floyd Mayweather in 2013. Alvarez’s win over Ryder came in May 2023.
Jermell Charlo (35-1-1 with 19 KOs) became the undisputed junior middleweight champion in his last outing, knocking out Brian Castano in May 2022. The win followed a July 2021 draw with Castano. Charlo has only fought once per year since 2020.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo betting picks
|To Win Undisputed Super Middleweight Title|
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo betting breakdown
Undisputed super middleweight champion Canelo Alvarez is one of the best counter punchers in boxing. He’ll look to step into range and entice Charlo to throw a jab from mid-range, and that will allow Alvarez to quickly counter and score with power punches, like hooks or overhands. He’ll also always look for any opening he can find to the body, where Alvarez can land devastating punches. Alvarez will also exploit Charlo’s tendency to throw jabs to the body while leaving his head exposed. A counter puncher like Alvarez will be able to tag Charlo at will. So, if he goes to that well too often, Charlo is going to be in trouble.
For Jermell Charlo, this fight comes down to using his lead left hand. His best bet against Alvarez is to use an active lead hand to control distance, pace, and his opponent’s guard. If everything works to his liking, Charlo can use his one-two to score points from distance against Alvarez. Charlo needs to catch Alvarez when he’s heavy on his lead foot as he moves into range to land punches of his own. Charlo should take as much as he can from the approach of Dmitry Bivol and force Alvarez from his front foot to his back foot when he moves in to counter.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: Who has the edge?
I don’t blame Charlo for taking this fight. It’s an opportunity to make a lot of money and possibly beat one of the greatest boxers of all time, but defeating Alvarez is a big ask for anyone, let alone a fighter who is moving up two weight divisions and who hasn’t fought in well over a year.
Yes, Charlo is taller than Alvarez and has a longer reach, but Alvarez has power, a great chin, and many more fights at this weight (and above), which will all come into play in Las Vegas.
As for talent, Alvarez is the better boxer. He is a more complete, skilled, experienced, and powerful boxer. In short, outside of height and reach, Alvarez has all the advantages in this matchup.
Best Bets for Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo
Outside of the chance that Canelo Alvarez’s time in the ring catches up with him in this fight, this contest is a bad matchup for Jermell Charlo in almost every way. Yes, there is some betting value in taking Charlo to get the upset win, but that’s a risky wager to make. The best bet in this fight is to pick Alvarez to win, with the value coming in how he will do so. Alvarez’s power will lead to a knockout win near the contest’s middle rounds.
Best bet for Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: Canelo Alvarez to win and remain the undisputed super middleweight champion.
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