Emanuel Navarrete to Beat Robson Conceicao and Retain WBO Junior Lightweight Title

  • Who: Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao
  • What: Navarrete’s WBO Junior Lightweight Title
  • Date: Thursday, November 16, 2023
  • Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
  • How to Watch: DAZN Pay-Per-View

The vacant WBC lightweight title is on the line on Thursday, November 16, when Shakur Stevenson faces Edwin De Los Santos at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Before that fight, Emanuel Navarrete puts his WBO junior lightweight title on the line against two-time world title challenger Robson Conceicao on the same card. Here is some background on Emanuel Navarrete and  Robson Conceicao before we discuss the betting odds and predictions for the junior lightweight title fight.

Emanuel Navarrete (38-1 with 31 knockouts) captured the vacant WBO junior lightweight title  in February 2023 with a ninth-round TKO win over Liam Wilson. In his first attempted defense of the title, Navarrete scored a unanimous decision win over former WBC champion Oscar Valdez. The Ring has Navarrete rated as the No. 1 fighter in the junior lightweight division.

Robson Conceicao (17-2-0-1 with eight knockouts) is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Shakur Stevenson in a contest for the WBC, WBO, and The Ring junior lightweight titles. Stevenson won that fight by unanimous decision after missing weight. Conceicao, a gold medalist for Brazil at the 2016 Olympics, also lost his WBC junior lightweight title fight to Valdez in September 2021. Conceicao is rated No. 7 at 130 pounds by The Ring.

Before we look at the junior lightweight matchup between Emanuel Navarrete and Robson Conceicao, check out the best boxing betting sites, and our picks for the Shakur Stevenson vs. Edwin De Los Santos WBC lightweight title fight.

Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao betting picks

To Win WBO Junior Lightweight TitleBetOnline ReviewBovadaBetUS ReviewMyBookie ReviewBetNow Review
Emanuel Navarrete-1000-1000-1000-1200-860
Robson Conceicao+600+575+600+575+610

Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao betting breakdown

The 28-year-old Emanuel Navarrete enters his matchup against Robson Conceicao as a three-division champion. The current 130-pound titleholder also captured belts at 122 and 126 before he moved up to 130 earlier this year. The knock against Navarrete heading into his recent fight against Oscar Valdez was that an experienced foe like Valdez could get a read on Navarrete’s unorthodox style and effectively counter him. That didn’t happen as Navarrete took the decision with scores of 119–109, 118–110, and 116–112. Navarrete out-landed Valdez 216 to 140 in total punches and 176 to 114 in power punches.

Navarrete uses lunging jabs, lead-hand hooks, and lead-hand uppercuts while fighting at distance. The champ also employs unconventional footwork and timing, which makes him a formidable fighter to gauge when coupled with his length. His win over Valdez gives him confidence heading into his fight opposite Conceicao.

The 35-year-old Conceicao is a good counterpuncher, but when he is forced to lead, he makes tactical mistakes that put him off balance and out of position. He also tends to throw his hooks wide, which opens him up to a fighter with speed and good reflexes. Defensively, Conceicao employs a high guard that tends to leave his body open.

Emanuel Navarrete TO BEAT ROBSON CONCEICAO
★★★★★
-1000
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Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao: Who has the edge?

Emanuel Navarrete is seven years younger than Robson Conceicao heading into their title fight. The champion is three inches shorter than his foe, but Navarrete has a two-inch reach advantage over Conceicao. Both men compete in the orthodox stance.

Looking at their fights against a common opponent in Oscar Valdez, Navarrete was far more active than Conceicao. Against Valdez, Navarrete threw 1,038 punches and landed 216. His output increased in the second half of the fight, where he averaged 95 attempts per round. Overall, Navarrete landed 20.8 percent of his total punches, 9.2 percent of his jabs, and 29.1 percent of his power punches against Valdez.

As for Conceicao, he attempted 576 punches against Valdez, landing 141. While he was more accurate than Navarrete against Valdez, landing 24.5 percent of his total punches, 13.6 percent of his jabs, and 34.7 percent of his power punches, Conceicao’s lack of output hurt him in that contest. Especially noteworthy was that Conceicao only landed more than 10 punches in two of the last six rounds of that fight.

Robson Conceicao TO BEAT EMANUEL NAVARRETE
★★★★★
+575
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Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao: What’s at stake?

While Shakur Stevenson wants fights against the elite of the 135-pound division, if he beats Edwin De Los Santos on November 16, the reality is that the winner of the Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao could be next in line for the victor of that fight. For his part, Stevenson is hopeful that he will win and that Navarrete will be victorious, “Seeing that Navarette is on the undercard, hopefully he can do his thing, I’m gonna do my thing and it could be a big fight next,” Stevenson said. “I’m willing to fight whoever, whenever. As long as the business is right, I’m ready for it.”

Robson Conceicao TO BEAT EMANUEL NAVARRETE
★★★★★
+600
Bet now

Best Bets for Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao

Emanuel Navarrete answered many lingering questions with his recent win over Oscar Valdez. With that fight behind him and a bright future, expect him to take the matchup against Robson Conceicao, Navarrete’s third fight of the year, seriously. I expect the betting favorite to triumph in this contest. Look for Navarrete to win via decision or possibly by knockout in the second round of the fight, especially if Conceicao’s output begins to fall off as it did against Valdez.

Betting pick for Emanuel Navarrete vs. Robson Conceicao: Navarrete to win via decision.

Emanuel Navarrete TO BEAT ROBSON CONCEICAO
★★★★☆
-1200
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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-view broadcast of UFC 1. He also has extensive experience in esports, particularly League of Legends and Counter Strike, dating back to the game's launch.