Trent Reinsmith
- Date & Location: Sunday, August 29 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio
- Odds: Jake Paul (-135) vs. Tyron Woodley (+105) via BetOnline
- Prediction: Jake Paul via decision
Jake Paul returns to the boxing ring on Sunday, August 29 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. Paul moved his record to 3-0 in professional boxing in April when he earned an early first-round TKO win over former Bellator and ONE Championship MMA champ Ben Askren. Paul faces former UFC champion Tyron Woodley in this matchup. Woodley is a training partner of Askren’s.
Paul has wins over Askren, Nate Robinson and AnEsonGib since he began his pro boxing career in January 2020. Woodley ended his UFC career with four straight losses. Woodley’s career MMA record is 19-7-1.
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PAUL vs. WOODLEY PREDICTION & PICK
Paul has been smart about picking his level of competition and the name recognition of that competition. On August 29, he’ll face a former UFC champion in Woodley. Woodley is a former All-American wrestler, so boxing is not his fighting base. However, he did score seven knockout wins during his MMA career. His most notable knockout win was his July 2016 first-round stoppage of Robbie Lawler. Woodley scored that knockout with a powerful, swarming attack. It was the last knockout win of his career.
As Woodley’s career ended, he developed a reputation as a fighter who could not pull the trigger. Woodley was more aggressive in his final UFC fight and he showed some spark in that contest, however, he was submitted and his UFC contract ended.
I’m torn here. Paul has shown he is serious in his boxing and he looks okay. Woodley has shown real power, but will he throw that power?
From what I’ve seen of these two, I have to lean slightly toward Paul with Woodley being a live underdog.
Prediction: Paul at -135 via Sportbetting.
BETTING VALUE WITH PAUL
I will start with Woodley. If he is going to win this fight, I think it will be via early knockout. If Woodley wants to win he has to stay out of his head. To do that he needs to swarm in early and overwhelm Paul with power and output. If Woodley can hit Paul hard early in the first and get him thinking about that power, I think he’ll be able to force him to the ropes and put him away. However, I’m not convinced that Woodley will let his hands go.
My concern for Paul is how he will react if Woodley uses his power and lands flush? I don’t think h
anyone with the power of Woodley has hit him in a fight and this could be a proper test to see if Paul has what it it takes to be a “real” boxer. Woodley does not have unimpeachable boxing skills, but he has power.
I think Paul’s best chance is to avoid the power and swarming of Woodley if it comes and stay to the outside with long jabs. If Paul can do that, I think he wins by decision.
Pick: Jake Paul via decision at -130 via BetUS.
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
Paul has the edge in size and age. Woodley has the edge in experience and power. Right now I have more questions about Woodley than I do about Paul and that gives Paul the slight edge in this one. Also, with Paul training strictly as a boxer, he might also have the edge in preparation.
TALE OF THE TAPE: PAUL vs. WOODLEY
| Jake Paul | Category | Tyron Woodley |
| 24 | Age | 39 |
| 3-0 (boxing) | Record | 19-7-1 |
| 3 | Knockout Wins | 7 |
| 0 | Decision Wins | 5 |
| 0 | DQ | 0 |
| 6’1″ | Height | 5’9″ |
| 76″ | Reach | 74″ |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
If Paul wants to continue to box as a pro and earn bigger paydays, he’s going to need to win this fight. He doesn’t have to look perfect doing so, but he needs to show he can defend against a big puncher and take the strikes Woodley is going to land.
Woodley said this fight will be his biggest career payday. If he wants to land some additional boxing matchups, he needs to be the man who hands Paul his first loss.
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