Trent Reinsmith
- Date & Location: Saturday, June 26 at Virgin Hotels in Las Vegas, NV
- Odds: Vasyl Lomachenko (-1400) vs. Masayoshi Nakatani (+700) via BetOnline
- Prediction: Lomachenko via decision
In October, Vasyl Lomachenko saw his 13-fight winning streak come to an end when he dropped a unanimous decision to Teofimo Lopez at MGM Grand in Las Vegas. Along with losing the fight, Lomachenko gave up his Ring Magazine, WBA, and WBO lightweight titles. The loss to Lopez didn’t result in an enormous drop in the rankings for Lomachenko, who is the No. 1 ranked lightweight according to Ring Magazine. This contest is the first for Lomachenko since his loss to Lopez.
Masayoshi Nakatani, who is the No. 9 ranked lightweight according to Ring, was 18-0 before he dropped his first fight. That unanimous decision setback in 2019 came at the hands of Lopez. Nakatani rebounded from that loss with a TKO win over Félix Verdejo in December 2020.
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LOMACHENKO vs. NAKATANI PREDICTION & PICK
The question Lomachenko faced heading into the Lopez fight was if his skills were failing him. I didn’t see that in the loss, but he didn’t step on the gas until the second half of the fight. One reason for that might have been the shoulder injury he had surgically repaired after the loss.
Lomachenko asked for this fight because both fighters have a loss to Lopez. His thinking was that this fight would allow him to compare his performance against Nakatani with that of Lopez. So, there is a reason behind this matchup and a fair share of motivation. Nakatani is likely to approach the fight with the same mindset.
With how long Lomachenko has been at the top of his game it’s hard to pick against him in this matchup as Nakatani did not make his move until he defeated Verdejo in his most recent outing. Nakatani was losing that fight at the time of the stoppage.
Prediction: Lomachenko at -1400 via Bovada.
BETTING VALUE WITH LOMACHENKO
With the former champion checking in at -1400, there’s not much value on betting Lomachenko. A prop bet on the finish of the fight might be the better way to go if you feel bullish on Lomachenko. I think Lomachenko wins via decision by using his skills to outbox his longer and taller opponent.
The challenger does offer intriguing odds if you feel that Lomachenko’s loss to Lopez was a turning point in his career, A bet on Nakatani to win might make sense with the potential for a nice return.
Pick: Lomachenko via decision -2000 via BetUs.
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
As far as boxing skills, Lomachenko, who had an illustrious amateur career, is the better fighter. However, he has to contend with an opponent who has a height and reach advantage and might have an edge in the confidence department as well. Lomachenko has to be controlled and strategic in this contest. I think with his experience, he has enough of an edge to take the fight to Nakatani and walk away with the win.
TALE OF THE TAPE: LOMACHENKO vs. NAKATANI
| Vasyl Lomachenko | Category | Masayoshi Nakatani |
| 33 | Age | 32 |
| 14-2 | Record | 19-1 |
| 10 | Knockout Wins | 13 |
| 4 | Decision Wins | 6 |
| 0 | DQ | 0 |
| 5’7″ | Height | 5’11 1/2″ |
| 65.5″ | Reach | 71″ |
| Southpaw | Stance | Orthodox |
WHAT’S AT STAKE?
There has been recent talk of a potential rematch between Lopez and Lomachenko. A dominant win against Nakatani could add some heat to that talk. As for Nakatani, as the odds indicate, this would be a huge upset. However, even if he scores the big upset win, don’t expect title talk to follow Nakatani.
