Will Mayweather vs McGregor Actually Happen?

Wait, so is this actually going to happen?

According to his management team, Conor McGregor was recently issued a boxing license by the California State Athletic Commission. That’s right, the face of the UFC is now officially a California boxer. As expected, this has thrown fuel on the rumour that he is seeking a fight with none other than Floyd Mayweather Jr.

But the Mayweather camp has repeatedly knocked back at these rumours, stating that McGregor isn’t serious about fighting the undefeated champ and that he is at the mercy of UFC CEO Dana White, who will never let him fight.

Instead, the Mayweather team believes that this is just a publicity stunt for McGregor to grow his own personal brand and use it as a bargaining tool against the UFC. It’s probably no coincidence that this is occurring in light of the UFC stripping McGregor of one of his titles and giving it back to Jose Aldo, a fighter he knocked out 13 seconds into their title fight.

The Mayweather team may be right, but as we’ve seen time and time again from the “Notorious” Irishman, he can be pretty unpredictable. If it turns out that McGregor is both willing and able to fight, would “Money” Mayweather actually take the fight? He’s said he’s happy in retirement, but the money could be too good to turn down.

Here are our odds regarding the whole Mayweather-McGregor fiasco.


Odds that the fight takes place before end of 2018: 9/1

It’s unlikely but definitely not impossible. It may be true that McGregor is only using the hype as a bargaining chip with the UFC, but both fighters have professed their love of money. And if the fight happens, it will be the biggest PPV event in sports history.

O/U on PPV numbers: 7M

The Mayweather-Pacquiao fight is currently the biggest PPV event in history, with an estimated 4.4M viewers. Next is Mayweather-De La Hoya, with 2.48M. After that is Mayweather’s bout against Canelo Alvarez.

Mayweather knows how to milk money from a fight, and a fight against McGregor will blow every other record out of the water.

Odds to win if the fight actually happens:

Mayweather: 2/45

McGregor: 19/2

Yes, McGregor has silenced his critics multiple times in the UFC. But moving to another sport and taking on arguably the most effective fighter that sport has ever produced is something completely different.

McGregor is an amazing puncher for a mixed martial artist, but for a boxer he’s pretty ordinary. Mayweather has spent his career fighting the best the sport has to offer and has come out unscathed each time. His technical ability is unparalleled and his understanding of the sport is unrivaled.


Photo credit: “Ver Mayweather vs Marcos Maidana en vivo – Box” by Ver en vivo directo, CC BY-SA 2.0 [http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0], via Flickr. [cropped]

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