Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner: Underdog Pick in Semifinal

We have already reached the semifinals of the French Open, and lo and behold the two biggest favorites of the tournament will square off as initially anticipated. Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz will oppose the Italian Jannik Sinner in what many will claim is the “real final.” Yet Ruud, Zverev, and de Minaur remain alive on the other side of the bracket and pose a strong challenge to Friday night’s winner. Read on for an expert 2024 Roland-Garros betting prediction and insights into the Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner semifinal matchup.

  • Men’s tennis
  • French Open (Roland-Garros)
  • Friday, June 7, 2024
  • Philippe-Chatrier, Stade Roland Garros, Paris, France
  • Tennis Channel, Peacock, NBC Sports

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Betting Odds

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite to defeat Sinner in the only clay major and advance to the final, but it will not be easy. His current odds of (-160) represent an implied winning percentage of 61.5%. If you fancy the chances of the underdog and arguably this year’s best player so far, Jannik Sinner, he is available at (+140) to win this match.

French OpenBetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovada
Carlos Alcaraz-160-160-170
Jannik Sinner+140+140+140

Want to better understand the 3-way moneyline (1X2) market? See our tennis betting tips and learn about French Open betting odds.

Does Carlos Alcaraz Deserve to be the Favorite?

Although Carlitos is known for his clay court skills, he has actually yet to secure a victory at the French Open. Despite reaching the semifinals last year, his journey was halted by a defeat against Novak Djokovic. Throughout his career, he has faced numerous injuries, with a recent setback being an arm injury to his dominant side. Given that his forehand is considered his strongest asset and his limited recent match play, it’s difficult to have full confidence in Alcaraz, especially at a steep price.

Seen as the successor to dominant “King of Clay” multiple-time French Open champion and fellow Spaniard Rafael Nadal, Carlos Alcaraz feels as if he is still growing into his potential. His shot selection leaves something to be desired, and may indicate some big headedness after such a quick climb to the pinnacle of tennis. Alcaraz and Sinner have faced each other 8 times on the main tour, with their head-to-head tied at 4-4, including one win each at Grand Slam events.

Carlos AlcarazTo Win
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Can Sinner Win on Clay?

The year’s best player, Jannik Sinner, is not known for clay prowess yet has arrived in the penultimate round of the Grand Slam with just one lost set. That came in a slow start against the hometown Frenchman Corentin Moutet. Moutet won the crowd over early but ran out of steam in the following sets, dropping each consecutively. 

What may have been most impressive was his dispatching of the difficult veteran Grigor Dimitrov. Sinner was pushed to his physical limits against the Bulgarian when they met in Beijing late last season, infamously puking in a trash can during the match. And this quarterfinal matchup was a scary one for Sinner as he hadn’t yet been tested much as he deals with his nagging hip injury. While concerns may still remain regarding his rally tolerance in longer matches due to that injury, he has certainly disproven the notion that he is much less capable of dominating on the dirt surface this year.

A silver lining to a loss on Friday? Jannik Sinner is assured of a position at the top of the rankings upon completion of the French Open. Novak Djokovic was forced to withdraw from the Paris tournament due to his knee injury and will therefore not accrue enough points to keep him ahead of the Italian. It will be the first time an Italian has ever been the world number one in tennis, and just the 29th different player ever.

Jannik Sinnerto Win
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Recent Form Statistics: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner

First serve, second serve, and return game stats can give us a better clue at how tennis players are performing in each situation. While some have different styles, the best in the world typically have strong numbers in all categories to suit a well-rounded game. Here are the following results for Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner, based on their recent forms.

  • Second Serve
    • Alcaraz has won 59.58% of points on the second serve
    • Sinner has won 58.27% of points on the second serve
  • Return Game (Second Serve)
    • Alcaraz has won 58.28% of opponent’s second serve points
    • Sinner has won 55.49% of opponent’s second serve points
  • Return Game (First Serve)
    • Alcaraz’s first serve return stats are 37.16%
    • Sinner’s first serve return stats are 34.17%
  • Break Points
    • Sinner has saved 77.3% of break points
    • Alcaraz has saved 62.39% of break points

Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Roland-Garros Betting Prediction

This semifinal should divide tennis fans between those who believe in the superiority of the young Alcaraz on clay and those who think Sinner’s dominant performances will translate on the dirt surface. There is little between these two in head to head history, and neither have lacked form in the French Open so far.

Looking closely at the stats, we can see that Sinner and Alcaraz do not separate much except for one key number: break points saved. Sinner has a 15% edge in this department, indicating his ability to deliver under pressure is much better than Alcaraz’s at the moment. To state the obvious, Sinner has also been a better player overall this season. The Italian has lost just two matches, winning 28 with 3 titles to his name before we even reach the busy part of the 2024 season. 

I believe Sinner can keep this one close, forcing tiebreaks and potentially even winning outright. Therefore, I see clear value on the Italian and will back him at +2.5 for a half unit in what, on paper, should be the best game of the tournament.

Jannik Sinner +2.5Games Spread
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.