- What: UFC 291 Pay-Per-View Card
- Who: Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
- Date: Saturday, July 29, 2023
- Location: Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET) Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET) Pay-Per-View (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ABC, ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
Two important fights headline UFC 291 on July 29 in Salt Lake City. In the main event of the ESPN+ streaming pay-per-view card, two former UFC interim lightweight champions, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje, face off. The UFC BMF title is on the line in the much-anticipated rematch. While in the co-main event, ex-UFC light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz faces former UFC middleweight champion Alex Pereira in a 205-pound matchup. Before those bouts take place, ex-UFC interim lightweight titleholder Tony Ferguson faces Bobby Green in a lightweight scrap. Here is some background on the Ferguson vs. Green booking, before we discuss the betting breakdown for the UFC 291 card.
Tony Ferguson (25-8) is struggling. The ex-interim titleholder is 0-5 in his past five outings, most recently falling to Nate Diaz via submission in September. Prior to his losing skid, Ferguson put together a run of 12 straight wins, a record in the UFC’s 155-pound division.
Bobby Green (29-14-1-1) is also looking for his first win in a while. Green is 0-2-0-1 in his past three fights. His most recent bout was a no contest due to an accidental clash of heads against Jared Gordon in April.
Before we look at the best bets for Ferguson vs. Green on the UFC 291 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the main event of UFC 291: Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler.
UFC 291 Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green betting picks
UFC 291 Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green betting breakdown
Not long ago, Tony Ferguson was considered one of the best fighters in the history of the UFC lightweight division. “El Cucuy” employed an innovative style that was fast-paced, risky, and violent. His approach to fighting made him a fan favorite and resulted in a stretch of nine fights where he won at least one UFC “Fight Night” bonus award for his efforts. The downside of Ferguson’s fighting style was that he took a lot of damage. During his prime, Ferguson could fight through that damage and still pick up wins. Those days are in the past. When Ferguson absorbs damage today, he does not wear it well, and struggles to battle through it. The result is that he has been winless since he knocked out Donald Cerrone in June 2019.
Bobby Green is similar to Ferguson in some ways. He has a crowd-pleasing style that is based on powerful striking and the ability to take the best shots his opponent can offer. Like Ferguson, that style has caught up with Green, who is 2-4-0-1 since October 2020. His two most recent losses have both come via knockout.
These two veteran combatants should give UFC 291 fans their money’s worth for as long as their fight lasts. Expect a high-output striking battle that could result in one or both of these men accumulating a great deal of damage.
UFC 291: Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green statistical breakdown
This an evenly matched contest when it comes to striking stats. Ferguson lands an average of 5.07 significant strikes per minute to Green’s 5.97. When it comes to absorbing shots, Ferguson gets hit with significant strikes at a rate of 3.95 per minute, which is slightly more than Green’s 3.67. Green is both more accurate in his striking and better defensively than Ferguson, landing at a 51 percent clip vs. Ferguson’s 45 percent and defending 62 percent of the strikes that come his way, as opposed to Ferguson’s rate of 58 percent.
I’d be surprised if this bout goes to the ground, but if it does, Ferguson has the advantage in grappling, as he is a black belt in jiu-jitsu.
Best bets for UFC 291: Tony Ferguson vs. Bobby Green
If this fight had taken place three or four years ago, the advantage would have gone to Tony Ferguson. However, the matchup is taking place in 2023, and the 39-year-old Ferguson’s best days are behind him. With that, the best bet is to choose the 36-year-old Bobby Green as the winner. As for the betting pick on the fight’s outcome, while Ferguson has fallen off, he remains a tough out. There is a chance Green will be able to score a TKO win via damage, but he only has three rounds to work in this fight, and Ferguson is hard to stop on strikes alone. With that, the best bet is to pick Green to win via decision.
On the other side of the equation, there is some betting value in picking Ferguson to win. Green can fall victim to his own success in his fights, and he often shows off and admires his work. If he backs off against someone like Ferguson and gives his opponent a chance to score some points, Ferguson could steal a decision victory at UFC 291.
Best UFC 291 betting pick: Bobby Green to beat Tony Ferguson via decision.
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