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- What: UFC 300 BMF Title Fight
- Who: Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway
- Date: Saturday, April 13, 2024
- Location: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET) Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET) PPV Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ESPN), Main Card (ESPN+ Pay-Per-View)
Alex Pereira puts his UFC light heavyweight title on the line for the first time when he faces former UFC light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill in the main event of UFC 300. UFC 300 takes place on Saturday, April 13, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The UFC’s BMF champion, Justin Gaethje, also puts his title on the line at UFC 300 in a lightweight scrap against former UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway. Here is some info on Gaethje vs. Holloway before we look at the betting breakdown for UFC 300.
Justin Gaethje (25-4) is a former interim UFC lightweight champion. He is riding a two-fight winning streak. Gaethje is coming off a July 2023 head kick knockout win over Dustin Poirier for the BMF title. He won a “Performance of the Night” bonus for his victory.
Max Holloway (25-7) held the UFC featherweight title between June 2017 and 2019. He defended his crown three times before losing to Alexander Volkanovski by decision in 2019. Holloway also challenged for the interim UFC lightweight title in 2019, losing that fight to Dustin Poirier by decision. Holloway is on a two-fight winning streak. His most recent win was an August knockout of “The Korean Zombie.”
Before we look at the best bets for the Gaethje vs. Holloway matchup on the UFC 300 PPV card, check out the best UFC betting sites and our betting picks for the UFC 300 main event, Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill.
UFC 300 BMF title fight: Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway betting picks
| To Win BMF Title |  |  |  |  |
| Justin Gaethje | -185 | -175 | -190 | -210 |
| Max Holloway | +156 | +150 | +160 | +155 |
Justin Gaethje betting breakdown
The No. 2 ranked fighter in the UFC’s official lightweight rankings, Justin Gaethje is a fearless fighter with 12 fight-night bonuses to his name in 12 UFC fights. Gaethje is an iron-chinned scrapper with some of the best leg kicks in the game. Over the past few years, the 35-year-old has morphed from a brawler into a more mature and measured fighter. Gone are the days of standing in the center of the cage and winging punches. Yes, the ex-interim UFC champ can summon that part of himself if the fight requires it, but he is calmer these days, and tends to use his striking to create openings rather than doing so via brute force and output. The BMF champ has also improved his footwork, making him a more elusive fighter.
Gaethje ranks first among active UFC lightweights in significant strikes landed per minute with 7.35. His striking accuracy is the second-best in the division at 60.3 percent. However, Gaethje gets hit a lot, absorbing 7.50 significant strikes per minute with a defensive rate of 53 percent. Despite the number of strikes he absorbs, Gaethje has only been knocked down twice in his UFC career. The BMF champ averages 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown success rate of 25 percent. Gaethje’s takedown defense is 75 percent, and he has yet to have a submission victory under the UFC banner.
Gaethje has 20 career knockout victories.
Max Holloway betting breakdown
The No. 2 ranked UFC featherweight, Max Holloway, moves up to 155 pounds for his UFC 300 BMF title fight against Justin Gatehje. Holloway has established himself as the standard for striking volume and output in the UFC. The Hawaiian holds the UFC career record for significant strikes landed (3,197). Holloway also owns UFC records in total strikes landed (3,441). The former champ’s 2021 bout opposite Calvin Kattar saw him set records in striking differential (plus 312), significant strikes landed (445), significant strikes attempted (744), distance strikes landed (439), significant head strikes landed (274), significant body strikes landed (117), total strikes landed (447) and total strikes attempted (746). Only one UFC featherweight has managed to outstrike Holloway over the past nine years, and that man is the current champion, Alexander Volkanovksi. In 28 career UFC fights, no one has dropped Holloway to the mat via strikes.
Holloway has a striking accuracy of 47 percent and absorbs 4.75 significant strikes per minute with a striking defense of 59 percent. Holloway averages 0.27 takedowns per 15 minutes. The ex-UFC champ has a takedown accuracy of 53 percent and a takedown defense of 84 percent. He averages 0.3 submissions per 15 minutes of UFC activity.
Holloway has 11 career knockout wins and two submission victories.
Best Bets: UFC 300 BMF title fight – Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway
The betting odds favor Justin Gaethje in this 155-pound scrap, but Max Holloway is a live betting underdog. If the former featherweight kingpin can control where the fight takes place and deal with Gaethje’s kicks and aggression for the majority of the five-round battle, Holloway could pull off the upset and take the BMF title. Keeping that in mind, there is betting value in placing a wager on Holloway to win. While I expect a competitive fight at UFC 300, I think Gaethje will be too much for Holloway over the course of the five-round fight.
The betting pick is Justin Gaethje to beat Max Holloway by decision. However, there is an outside chance that Gaethje becomes the first fighter to stop Holloway with strikes. A Gaethje win via knockout is an interesting value bet.
See below a list of reliable sportsbooks and choose the best one for you.
