- What: UFC 295 co-main event
- Who: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall
- Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023
- Location: Madison Square Garden in New York City
- Time: Early Prelims (6:00) Prelims (8:00 p.m. ET) PPV Card (10:00 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ESPNews), Main Card (ESPN+ PPV)
With UFC heavyweight champion Jon Jones suffering a pectoral tear, his title defense against former UFC heavyweight titleholder Stipe Miocic has been removed from the UFC 295 pay-per-view event. The new headlining bout for the November 11 UFC fight card from Madison Square Garden pits ex-UFC light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka against former UFC middleweight kingpin Alex Pereira. With Jones vs. Miocic off the card, the UFC added an interim heavyweight title fight in the co-main event slot. That contest sees Sergei Pavlovich meet Tom Aspinall. Here is some information on the fighters before we discuss the UFC 295 PPV fight card betting breakdown.
Sergei Pavlovich is 18-1 in his MMA career. The No. 2 fighter in the official UFC heavyweight rankings is coming off a first-round knockout win over Curtis Blaydes in April. Pavlovich is on a run of six straight first-round knockout wins under the UFC banner. His only setback is a November 2018 TKO loss to Alistair Overeem.
Tom Aspinall has a 13-3 MMA record. He enters UFC 295 as the No. 4 ranked fighter in the UFC heavyweight division. Aspinall is 6-1 in the UFC, with his only loss being a TKO due to knee injury to Curtis Blaydes. Aspinall, who has five first-round finishes and one second-round submission win with the UFC, is coming off a July TKO victory over Marcin Tybura.
Before we look at the best bets for the Pavlovich vs. Aspinall matchup on the UFC 295 PPV, check out the best UFC betting sites and our picks for the UFC 295 main event contest between Jiri Prochazka and Alex Pereira.
UFC 295 co-main event: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall betting odds
|To Win Interim UFC Heavyweight Title|
UFC 295 co-main event: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall betting breakdown
Aspinall is a fast starter. Of his six UFC wins, five have come via first-round stoppage. The 30-year-old has an impressive striking game to back up his black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Of his three career losses, one came via injury, one via DQ for illegal elbows, and one via submission (in 2015). Aspinall does his best work on the mat, but his speed on the feet and his ability to find openings for his fast counters also make him a threat in the striking department. He looked excellent in returning from injury against Tybura, showing no reluctance to engage and no ill effects from the leg injury he suffered against Blaydes. Aspinall has the shortest average fight time in the history of the UFC heavyweight division at 2:19.
Like Aspinall, the 31-year-old Pavlovich likes to get things done in a hurry. Since losing to Overeem, Pavlovich has run off six first-round knockouts. His average fight time is second lowest in UFC heavyweight division history at 2:23. Unlike Aspinall, Pavlovich is strictly a striker. He is fast with his strikes and might be the most powerful striker currently competing under the UFC banner. He has also faced better competition than Aspinall up to this point in his UFC career.
UFC 295 co-main event: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall – Who has the edge?
Pavlovich has a training advantage for this fight. He was to serve as the backup fighter for Jones vs. Miocic, so he will enter UFC 295 with a full camp under his belt. As for Aspinall, he didn’t find out he was competing at UFC 295 until late October.
Expect this fight to be contested on the feet. With that, we will look at the striking stats for each fighter and see how they compare. Pavlovich is the most active striker in UFC heavyweight history, landing 8.72 significant strikes per minute. Aspinall is No. 2 in that stat, landing at a rate of 7.65 per minute. Aspinall is the more accurate striker, connecting on 66 percent of his attempts, as compared to Pavlovich’s 49 percent accuracy. Pavlovich also absorbs more strikes than Aspinall, getting hit 4.33 times per minute, while Aspinall gets tagged 2.90 times per 60 seconds. Aspinall’s defense is better than Pavlovich’s at 65 percent vs. 57 percent. Another thing to consider is that no UFC heavyweight has a higher striking differential than Aspinall’s plus 4.75.
UFC 295 co-main event: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall – What’s at stake?
While this fight is for the interim UFC heavyweight title, the belief is that the winner of the UFC 295 co-main event could eventually be named the official UFC heavyweight champion. There has been talk that the winner of the Jones vs. Miocic fight will retire as the champion after that event. In a worst-case scenario, the winner of the Pavlovich vs. Aspinall contest will face the winner of Jones vs. Miocic in a title unification bout, hopefully in 2024. Jones has undergone surgery for his injury, but the UFC has not announced when the Jones vs. Miocic title fight will take place.
Best Bets : UFC 295 co-main event: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall
The co-main event of UFC 295 is a tough fight to come up with a betting pick. The first wager one should consider is the length of the fight. Judging from history, it’s likely that this fight will not go the distance. When it comes to who will win, I’m leaning toward the betting favorite, Tom Aspinall. He is defensively sound and more well-rounded. With that being said, the betting underdog, Sergei Pavlovich, is a live dog because of his power. There’s also a chance that Aspinall will submit a tired Pavlovich late in the fight.
Best UFC 295 Co-Main Event Betting Pick: Tom Aspinall to beat Sergei Pavlovich by knockout.
See below a list of reliable sportsbooks and choose the best one for you.