Nuggets to defeat Heat in Game 5 and claim first NBA title in franchise history

  • Go to BetOnline or Bovada for the latest odds on the Heat vs Nuggets Game 5 matchup
  • Nikola Jokic is a -5000 favorite to win 2023 NBA Finals MVP after putting up a record 10 triple-doubles this postseasonΒ Β 
  • ABC airs Game 5 from Ball Arena in Denver on Monday, June 12 at 8:30 p.m. ET

With its 108-95 victory in Game 4 of the NBA Finals, the Nuggets are just one win away from its first NBA championship in 47 seasons. Denver can close out the series on Monday night at home, where they’re 9-1 this postseason.

Will Nikola Jokić collect his first ring in front of his home fans or can the Heat register one final upset and force a Game 6 back in Miami on Thursday? Before we look at the latest 2023 NBA Finals Betting Odds, check out our guide to betting on NBA basketball.

Heat vs Nuggets – Game 5

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Miami Heat+9.0 (-110)+325Un 208.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets-9.0 (-110)-405Ov 208.5 (-110)

Denver’s secondary stars shine

Denver has been a top-heavy, two-man team throughout most of the playoffs. But, their secondary scoring was crucial to their 108-95 win on Friday. Aaron Gordon scored 27 points, six rebounds and six assists while Bruce Brown added 21 off the bench. Many of which were crucial fourth-quarter buckets while Nikola Jokić was in foul trouble.

That said, the two-time NBA MVP still put up 23 points and 12 rebounds in Game 4. Jamal Murray also finished with 15 points and 12 assists, becoming only the second player after Magic Johnson to register four straight 10-assist games in the NBA Finals.

Heat’s title chances are ice cold

While Denver has won nine of its last 10 games, Erik Spoelstra’s club has dropped six of their last eight. Jimmy Butler had 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists in Game 4 and Bam Adebayo collected 20 points and 11 boards. But, the team’s secondary scoring has gone cold of late. Miami hit only 19-of-60 three pointers (31.6%) in its last two home games.

The Heat are now 1-6 in the playoffs when they score less than 100 points, with three of those losses coming against the Nuggets in the 2023 NBA Finals.

Denver NuggetsTo Win Series 4-1
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Nikola Jokic2023 NBA Finals MVP
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Miami vs Denver

Denver is a 9-point favorite to clinch their first championship at home in Game 5. They’re 9-1 in Ball Arena in the postseason while the Heat have a 7-5 road record, including a Game 7 triumph over the Celtics and a Game 2 victory over the Nuggets.

As only the second 8th seed in NBA history to reach the finals, Miami has many surprising wins throughout their playoff run. However, the odds are truly stacked against them now. Only one of 36 teams to fall behind 3-1 in the NBA Finals have comeback to win the series – the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers.

Best Bet

While three of the four games in this series have gone UNDER, we’ll take the OVER on 208.5 points as we expect the Nuggets offense to be clicking on all cylinders in Game 5.

We like Denver to cover the 9-point spread at home on Monday nightΒ and clinch their first NBA title in the franchise’s 47-year history. Before claiming the 2023 NBA Finals MVP, look for JokiΔ‡ to extend his record with his 11th triple-double of the playoffs.

Denver NuggetsTo Cover Spread
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Steve Starr

Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.