- Go to BetOnline or Bovada for the latest odds on the Heat vs Hawks Eastern Conference Play-In game
- The NBA’s play-in tournament features the seventh through 10th place clubs battling for the final two playoff seeds in each conference
- Tip off from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida is at 7:30pm ET on Tuesday, April 11
Miami (44-38) hosts Atlanta (41-41) in the first game of the Eastern Conference play-in tournament on Tuesday night. The winner will advance to battle the Boston Celtics in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. And the loser will be forced into a do-or-die contest against the victor of Wednesday’s Raptors-Bulls contest.
Before we break down the matchup and make our picks, check out the latest 2023 NBA Playoff Betting Odds and our guide to betting on the NBA.
Heat vs Hawks
|Spread||Money Line||Total Points|
|Atlanta Hawks||+5.0 (-110)||+185||Ov 226.5 (-110)|
|Miami Heat||-5.0 (-110)||-215||Un 226.5 (-110)|
The Butler keeps doing it
Miami’s had a disappointing season after finishing atop the Eastern Conference in 2022 and falling just one win short of advancing to the NBA Finals. However, they’re still a dangerous, veteran team that can punch their ticket to the postseason with one more home victory. The Heat won the season series 3-1, defeating Atlanta in two consecutive home games in early March. They also downed the Hawks 4-1 in the first round of last season’s playoffs.
Jimmy Butler almost had a triple-double in their last matchup, with 26 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assists. Along with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro, he’s one of three Heat players averaging over 20 points per game this season. Built for postseason basketball, Erik Spoelstra’s club is also top 10 in defensive efficiency.
“If I’m the Celtics, I’m praying that I don’t see playoff Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat in the first round. … It would be upset alert … I’m telling you this right now.”
— First Take (@FirstTake) April 7, 2023
Hawks under Snyder
Expectations were sky-high in Atlanta following the acquisition of Dejounte Murray to pair with Trae Young in the backcourt. But, when the Hawks couldn’t get off the ground, they replaced coach Nate McMillan with Quinn Snyder. The Jazz’s former bench boss hasn’t had any more success than his predecessor, leading the team to a 10-10 record.
Young averaged 26.2 points with 10.2 assists per games this year and remains one of the streakiest shooters in the league. Trae’s performances against Miami were a bit of a mixed bag this season. After scoring only 8 points (2-of-13 from the field) on March 4th, he rebounded for 25 points (9-of-17) two nights later. The 24-year-old point guard will need to be at his electrifying best to have any chance in this one.
Miami vs Atlanta
Miami is a 5-point home favorite on Tuesday night. While they were a respectable 26-14 at home this season, the Heat were just 13-25-2 against the spread in the Kaseya Center. That’s the second-worst ATS home record in the NBA.
Meanwhile, the Hawks were 17-23 outside the state of Georgia, going 18-21-1 ATS. The Hawks were 14-11-1 ATS as a road underdog, while Spoelsta’s club was a sickening 10-23-2 as a home favorite.
Trae Young tonight:
20-20 game. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ks2BeJIPJf
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) April 8, 2023
The Hawks/Heat game total is set at 226.5 points. Many expect Miami’s defense to tighten up in the postseason, but all the regular season trends point to this game going OVER.
Atlanta’s 56.8% OVER rate was the third-highest league-wide. Sixty percent of their road games hit the OVER while 55 per cent of Heat home games do the same.
While we think the Hawks will keep it closer than most expect, we like Miami to advance to play the Celtics in the first round of the NBA Playoffs.
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