Broncos to cover in Buffalo but Bills escape with week 10 victory

  • Buffalo (5-4) is a 7.5-point home favorite over the Broncos (3-5) in Week 10 of the NFL season
  • Josh Allen is tied for the league lead in interceptions (9) after getting picked off in Sunday’s 24-18 loss to Cincinnati 
  • Monday Night Football on ESPN kicks off from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY at 8:15 pm ET

Josh Allen’s Bills suddenly sit outside of the AFC playoff picture after suffering yet another decisive loss to the Bengals on Sunday. Can Buffalo rebound against a Broncos team that defeated the Chiefs before their week 9 bye?

Before we check the odds for Monday Night Football and make our picks, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2023.

Bills vs Broncos

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Denver Broncos+7.5 (-115)+280Ov 46.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills-7.5 (-105)-350Un 46.5 (-110)

Will Buffalo miss the postseason?

Josh Allen drove 85 yards for a touchdown on the Bills opening drive before the offense went dark in a 24-18 loss to the Bengals in week 9. Allen finished with 258 passing yards, a TD and an interception with an additional 44 rushing yards and a score, but once again couldn’t keep pace with the Bengals. Sean McDermott’s injured and undermanned defense was carved up by Joe Burrow for 348 yards and two scores.

Sitting at 5-4, Buffalo desperately needs a victory over the Broncos to keep their playoff dreams alive. Over the season’s second half, they have matchups against the Jets, who beat them in week 1, Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Dolphins.

Broncos getting better?

The Sean Payton era got off to an ugly start, but the Broncos are riding a two-game win streak after downing the Chiefs 24-9 before their week 9 bye. Denver held Patrick Mahomes to three field goals, so while they famously allowed 70 points to Miami in week 3, Vance Joseph’s defense is showing signs of life.

Russell Wilson played conservatively in the win over KC, passing for 114 yards and three touchdowns. Javonte Williams also carried the ball 27 times for 85 yards and will be relied upon heavily in the season’s second half.

Buffalo Billsto win vs Broncos
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UNDER 46.5Bills vs Broncos
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Buffalo vs Denver

Buffalo is a 7.5-point favorite at Orchard Park on Monday night with the over/under set at 46.5 points. The Bills have the NFL’s fifth-highest scoring offense, averaging 27.7 points per week. And Denver ranks 31st in points allowed (28.3) and 32nd in yards allowed (405.9) entering week 9.

Vance Joseph’s D ranks bottom-ten in passing yards allowed (251.8) and dead last in rushing yards allowed (154.1). But, the Broncos have held their opponents to a total of 45 points (15 per week) in their past three games. Meanwhile, McDermott’s defense ranks No. 5 in points allowed (17.8) and is middle-of-the-pack against the run and the pass.

Can the Bills cover?

Since demolishing the Dolphins in week 4, the Bills fell to Jacksonville in London, barely defeated Tyrod Taylor and the Giants on Sunday Night Football, were upset by the Patriots, let the Buccaneers cover in week 8, and got smoked by Cincinnati in prime time. Buffalo now has to face a rested Denver team coming off a bye.

Look for Leonard Fournette to be activated from the practice squad this week. He’ll hope to invigorate a rushing back room that was held to just 24 yards on eight carries on Sunday.

Best Bet

Buffalo is plenty capable of blowing out the Broncos, but something has been off in Orchard Park all year. While we like the Bills to secure a win on Monday night, Denver will cover the points (+7.5) with the UNDER 46.5.

Denver Broncosto cover vs Bills
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Steve Starr

Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.

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