Buffalo Bills to stomp Steelers on Super Wild Card Weekend

  • Buffalo (11-6) is a heavy 10-point home favorite over the Steelers (10-7) on Super Wild Card Weekend 
  • Josh Allen finished the season with 4,306 passing yards, 44 total TDs and 22 turnovers 
  • Sunday’s NFL playoff game kicks off from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY at 1:00pm ET

Josh Allen and the Bills won five-straight to claim their fourth-consecutive AFC East title. On Sunday, they’ll face a Steelers team looking for its first playoff win since 2016. Pittsburgh is on a three-game winning streak, but will be without star edge rusher T.J. Watt, who suffered an MCL sprain in Saturday’s victory over Baltimore.

Before we check the odds on this AFC Wild Card matchup and make our picks, here’s where you can find the best tips for betting on the 2024 NFL playoffs and the top betting sites for NFL football.

Bills vs Steelers

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Pittsburgh Steelers+10.0 (-110)+400Ov 35.0 (-110)
Buffalo Bills-10.0 (-110)-505Un 35.0 (-110)

The Josh Allen rollercoaster

No quarterback provides more thrills than Josh Allen. In Sunday night’s division-clinching win over the Dolphins, the Bills’ franchise quarterback was intercepted twice in the red zone and fumbled right outside of it. Allen made up for his mistakes, however, passing for 359 yards and two touchdowns with another 67 yards on the ground.

Sean McDermott’s defense limited Miami to just 275 total yards, intercepting Tua Tagovailoa twice on the day. Buffalo rebounded from an uneven 6-6 start to secure the No. 2 seed and a seemingly easy matchup with the Steelers. But, it will be on Allen to limit his mistakes after tossing a career-high 18 interceptions this season.

Steelers sneak in

Najee Harris rumbled for 112 yards and a score in 17-10 win over a Ravens teams resting Lamar Jackson and many of its starters. Mason Rudolph had his worst showing since taking over in Pittsburgh, throwing for only 152 yards and a touchdown. The veteran QB led the Steelers offense to back-to-back 30-point performances in weeks 16 and 17.

T.J. Watt’s two sacks on Saturday spiked his total to a league-leading 19. However, the Defensive Player of the Year contender left the contest with a sprained MCL and will almost certainly miss the Wild Card matchup in Buffalo.

Buffalo Billsto win vs Steelers
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OVER 35.0Bills vs Steelers
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Buffalo vs Pittsburgh

Buffalo is a 10-point home favorite in Orchard Park, where they are 7-2 this season. The over/under of 35 points is by far the lowest total of the six-game Super Wild Card slate. The Bills defense allowed the fourth-fewest points per game (18.3) this season while the Steelers ranked sixth (19.1).

Expect Mike Tomlin to continue feeding Najee Harris, who has run for more than 100 yards in consecutive weeks. George Pickens’s usage is harder to figure out. The mercurial receiver made 11 receptions for 326 yards and 2 TDs in weeks 16 and 17 before not receiving a single target against the Ravens.

Best Bet

Not much analysis is necessary here – this one all comes down to Josh Allen limiting his mistakes against an inferior Steelers football team.

While it’s hard to trust the Bills after their rollercoaster season, we like Buffalo to cover the big point spread (-10) against Pittsburgh with the OVER 35 points.

Buffalo Billsto cover vs Steelers
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Steve Starr

Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.

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