Chiefs to upset Bills to reach 6th-straight AFC Championship Game

  • Buffalo (12-6) is a 2.5-point home favorite over the Chiefs (12-6) in the AFC Divisional Round
  • Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are set to face off for the seventh time in their illustrious careers
  • Sunday’s NFL playoff game kicks off from Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY at 6:30 pm ET

Kansas City knocked the Bills out of the postseason in two of the past three years. But Buffalo finally has home-field advantage on Sunday with Patrick Mahomes set to play the first road playoff game of his incredible career. Can Josh Allen dethrone the two-time Super Bowl champion in Orchard Park or will the Chiefs advance to the AFC Championship Game for the sixth-straight year?

Before we check the odds on this Divisional Round playoff matchup and make our picks, here’s where you can find the best tips for betting on the 2024 NFL playoffs and the top betting sites for NFL football.

Bills vs Chiefs

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Kansas City Chiefs+2.5 (+100)+127Ov 45.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills-2.5 (-120)-147Un 45.5 (-110)

AFC Divisional Round Classic

Buffalo won five-consecutive games to end the season to secure the No. 2 seed, overcoming a mistake-prone 7-6 start to the season that almost cost them a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Chiefs struggled on offense all year, falling to the No. 3 seed following December losses to the Packers, Bills and Raiders.

After looking like flawed teams for the majority of 2023, both AFC superpowers flexed their muscles in the Wild Card round. Josh Allen passed for three touchdowns and had a jaw-dropping 52-yard TD run in a comfortable 31-17 victory over Pittsburgh. And Patrick Mahomes diced up the Dolphins for 262 yards and a score in an easy 26-7 win.

Recent history

Mahomes and Allen put on a show the last time these two met in the playoffs, with the Chiefs winning a thrilling 42-36 OT classic that saw 25 points scored in the final two minutes of regulation. That game will of course be remembered for Sean McDermott’s Bills allowing Kansas City to score a game-tying field goal with just 13 seconds left on the clock.

Buffalo scored a 20-17 victory over Andy Reid’s club back in week 14. A Kadarius Toney offsides penalty got KC’s would-be go-ahead 30-yard TD overturned after Travis Kelce lateraled the ball to Toney. Mahomes proceeded to cry about the officials after the game, making the first heel turn of his career.

Kansas Cityto cover vs Bills
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OVER 45.5Chiefs vs Bills
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Buffalo vs Kansas City

Buffalo is a 2.5-point home favorite in Highmark Stadium on Sunday evening with the over-under set at 45.5 points. Both teams have top-five scoring defenses with the Chiefs allowing just 16.7 points per game versus Buffalo’s 18.2. Steve Spagnuolo’s D permits 177.2 passing yards per week (No. 4 in the NFL) compared to the Bills’ 197.8 (No. 7).

KC put the Dolphins in a stranglehold last Saturday night, limiting Mike McDaniels’ explosive offense to only 264 total yards. Sean McDermott’s D was also solid against the Steelers, but linebacker Terrel Bernard and defensive backs Christian Benford and Taron Johnson left the contest with injuries.

Two flawed teams face off

Which year-long storyline will come into focus in the AFC Divisional matchup? Will it be Josh Allen’s turnovers after the Bills QB threw a career-high 18 interceptions in 2023 with seven fumbles? Or will it be another costly drop by a Chiefs receiver?

Allen is coming off a turnover-free performance against Pittsburgh while Rashee Rice has emerged in KC. The rookie receiver caught eight balls for 130 yards and a TD in the win over Miami.

Best Bet

Will home field make a difference for Buffalo? Well, it certainly can’t hurt considering McDermott has an 0-4 career road playoff record. Mahomes tossed eight interceptions away from Arrowhead in 2023, but he is 38-11 all-time away from home in the regular season. That’s the most victories by any quarterback in their first 50 road starts since 1950.

We like Mahomes and the Chiefs to break the hearts of Bills fans yet again on Sunday. Take Kansas City to cover (+2.5) and win outright (+127) with the OVER 45.5 points.

Kansas Cityto win vs Bills
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Steve Starr

Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.

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