Dolphins to upset Bills and knock AFC East rivals out of the postseason

  • Buffalo (10-6) is a 3-point road favorite over the Dolphins (11-5) in the Week 18 regular season finale
  • Josh Allen has led the Bills back into playoff contention with eight rushing TDs in the past five games
  • Sunday Night Football on NBC kicks off from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, FL at 8:20pm ET

Buffalo could be in the ultimate all-or-nothing situation on Sunday night. A victory over the Dolphins would give Sean McDermott’s club their fourth-straight AFC East title. However, if the Steelers and Jaguars win their week 18 games, the Bills will miss the postseason altogether if they fall to Miami.

Before we check the odds on this crucial divisional matchup and make our picks, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2023.

Dolphins vs Bills

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Buffalo Bills-3.0 (-110)-160Ov 49.0 (-110)
Miami Dolphins+3.0 (-110)+140Un 49.0 (-110)

What’s wrong with Buffalo?

The Bills are 5-1 since replacing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady, but their offense hasn’t exactly been running on all cylinders. After narrowly defeating Easton Stick and the Chargers in week 16, Buffalo squeaked by the 4-12 Patriots with a 27-21 win last Sunday. In the victory, Josh Allen completed only 15 of 30 passes for 169 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception.

While Allen has eight rushing scores over his past five contests, the passing attack has bottomed out. Stefon Diggs hasn’t surpassed 100 receiving yards since October 15. He’s been held under 50 yards in six of his last seven outings, including four in a row.

Dolphins decimated by injury

Miami suffered an embarrassing 56-19 loss to the top-seeded Ravens last Sunday. Even worse, Bradley Chubb went down with a season-ending injury, joining fellow edge rusher Jaelan Phillips on the sidelines.

Mike McDaniel’s club has suffered against top competition all year. While they defeated the Cowboys in week 16, they also dropped high-profile matchups to Philadelphia, Kansas City and Buffalo. The Bills blew out the Dolphins 48-20 in Orchard Park back in week 4 in a game where Allen threw more touchdowns (5) than incompletions (4).

Miami Dolphinsto cover vs Buffalo
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UNDER 49Dolphins vs Bills
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Miami vs Buffalo

Miami is a 3-point home underdog at Hard Rock Stadium in the NFL’s regular-season finale and the over/under is set at a robust 49 points. Vic Fangio’s defense was decimated by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in week 17, allowing 491 total yards and 56 points. However, even with the injuries on the defensive line, they should be better prepared for Allen in week 18 than they were back in October.

Tua Tagovailoa tossed two interceptions in the loss to Baltimore and Tyreek Hill bobbled a would-be touchdown in the endzone. Both men were held in check by Sean McDermott’s D in the last meeting.

Recent history

Buffalo has won three in a row in this series, but Mike McDaniels’ offense has put up points against Sean McDermott’s defense. Miami scored 29 against the Bills last December. And in last year’s Wild Card Round loss, the Dolphins registered 31 points despite being quarterbacked by backup Skylar Thompson.

Best Bet

While Buffalo has seemingly righted the ship after its early-season struggles, this all feels like an evil setup designed to cause maximum pain for the Bills mafia.

We like the Dolphins to cover (+3) and win (+140) to claim the AFC East and knock the Bills out of the playoffs.

Miami Dolphinsto win vs Buffalo
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Steve Starr

Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.

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