Chiefs to down Dolphins on Super Wild Card Weekend

  • Kansas City (11-6) is a 3.5-point home favorite over the Dolphins (11-6) on Super Wild Card Weekend 
  • Tyreek Hill led the league with 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns this season 
  • Saturday’s primetime NFL playoff game kicks off from Kansas City, MO at 8:00pm ET

A 21-14 home loss to Buffalo cost the Dolphins their first AFC East title since 2008. Miami will now travel to Kansas City on Wild Card Weekend, in what will be Tyreek Hill’s first game back at Arrowhead since being traded. While Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs have struggled offensively this season without their former star receiver, Andy Reid’s club still captured their eighth-straight AFC West championship.

Before we check the odds and make our picks, here’s where you can find the best tips for betting on the 2024 NFL playoffs and the top betting sites for NFL football.

Chiefs vs Dolphins

BetOnline ReviewSpreadMoney LineTotal Points
Miami Dolphins+3.5 (-110)+162Ov 43.5 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs-3.5 (-110)-182Un 43.5 (-110)

Can Miami rebound?

Miami dropped three of its last five games to fall to the sixth-seed in the AFC. The Dolphins have been decimated on the defensive side of the ball, losing edge rushers Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkel in recent weeks. However, cornerback Xavien Howard, receiver Jaylen Waddle and veteran back Raheem Mostert should all return versus the Chiefs after missing Sunday’s loss to Buffalo.

Tua Tagovaoloa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards this season, connecting with Tyreek Hill for a league-leading 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns.

KC’s offensive struggles

Kansas City should be the fresher team after resting their starters in a 13-12 win over the Chargers. The victory gave the Chiefs 11-plus wins for the sixth consecutive season, but their offense has looked broken all year. Patrick Mahomes finished sixth in passing yards (4,183) and eighth in passing TDs (27) with a career-high 14 interceptions.

Travis Kelce also failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the eighth-straight season after sitting out of Sunday’s contest. The lone bright spot has been rookie Rashee Rice, who made 35 receptions for 411 yards and two scores in the month of December.

Kansas Cityto win vs Dolphins
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UNDER 43.5Chiefs vs Dolphins
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Kansas City vs Miami

Kansas City is a 3.5-point home favorite in Arrowhead on Saturday night with the over-under set at 43.5 points. The Chiefs defeated Miami 21-14 in Germany back in Week 9, with both teams failing to muster 300 yards of total offense. In that contest, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense limited Tyreek Hill to eight grabs for 62 yards with no touchdowns and a crucial fumble.

KC has allowed the second-fewest yards (289.8) and points per game (17.3) this season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins’ defense steadily improved down the stretch under Vic Fangio. But they’ll be hard pressed to pressure Mahomes without their three top edge rushers.

Best Bet

Patrick Mahomes has a 9-2 career playoff record at Arrowhead. (Not to mention his two Super Bowl victories.) While their offense looks broken, the Chiefs should muster up enough points to defeat the injury-ravaged Dolphins on Saturday night.

We’ll take Kansas City to cover (-3.5) with the UNDER 43.5 points.

Kansas Cityto cover vs Dolphins
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Steve Starr

Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.

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