- Dallas is favored by a touchdown over New England in Week 4 of the NFL season
- Ezekiel Elliott returns home after rushing for 80 yards in a win over the Jets
- Sunday’s game kicks off from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX at 4:25pm ET
New England picked up its first win of the year against the lowly Jets on Sunday while Dallas suffered a surprising loss to the Cardinals. Can Bill Belichick’s Patriots keep rolling against a beat up Cowboys offensive line or will Micah Parsons make life hell for Mac Jones in week 4?
Cowboys vs Patriots
|Spread||Money Line||Total Points|
|New England Patriots||+7.0 (-120)||+245||Un 43.0 (-110)|
|Dallas Cowboys||-7.0 (+100)||-290||Ov 43.0 (-110)|
Dallas’ surprising loss
Just when you thought the Cowboys were Super Bowl contenders, they lose to Arizona. Granted, Dallas lost star cornerback Trevon Diggs to a season-ending torn ACL earlier in the week and was missing three starters on the offensive line, but still… losing to the Cardinals? C’mon!
Mike McCarthy’s club was just 1 of 5 in the red zone in Sunday’s 28-16 defeat and Dak Prescott tossed his first interception late in the fourth quarter. The Cards also piled up 222 rushing yards against the Cowboys’ heralded defense, with James Conner (98 yards, TD), quarterback Joshua Dobbs (55 yards) and receiver Rondale Moore (54 yards, TD) all getting in on the action.
WOW DAK PRESCOTT INTERCEPTED pic.twitter.com/6yVg58xrSM
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 24, 2023
Patriots pick up first win
New England’s defense sacked Zach Wilson three times in Sunday’s 15-10 victory while generating pressure on 61.5% of the Jets’ dropbacks. That could spell trouble for Prescott if Zack Martin and Tyron Smith don’t return. However, the Patriots still must find a way to put points on the board in week 4.
Bill O’Brien’s offense has failed to generate 20 points in each of their three games. And Mac Jones has led only three touchdown drives over the past two weeks. After Arizona found success on the ground against Dallas, expect O’Brien to feed Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. The long-time Cowboy racked up 80 yards on 16 carries in week 3.
Dallas vs New England
Dallas is a 7-point favorite at AT&T Stadium and the over/under is set at 43 points. That low total makes perfect sense as the Cowboys and Patriots are both allowing under 270 yards of total offense per game, ranking fourth and fifth in the NFL, respectively.
New England’s beleaguered offensive line didn’t allow any sacks in the win over the Jets, providing some hope they can keep Mac Jones safe from Micah Parsons. The 24-year-old superstar has four sacks and a forced fumble this season.
“We know Will [Grier] knows where a lot of the bones are buried. We know… pic.twitter.com/J0vcJh7mO2
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 26, 2023
Keys to victory
Dallas ranks 27th in the NFL in the red zone this season, converting only 40% of its trips into TDs. Dak Prescott has also completed only 11-of-24 passes in the RZ and star rookie Christian Gonzalez will likely be shadowing his top target, CeeDee Lamb, who has yet to hit pay dirt in 2023.
The UNDER 43 should hit on Sunday. New England held the 70-point offensive juggernaut Dolphins to only 24 in week 2 and the Cowboys don’t have nearly as much offensive firepower.
While we don’t have enough faith in the Patriots’ attack to predict an upset, Belichick’s boys will cover the +7 points.
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