- Dan Campbell (+350) is the favorite to win 2023 NFL Coach of the Year
- Mike McDaniel (+400) is the architect of an explosive offense that has gotten Miami off to a 3-1 start
- DeMeco Ryans (+500) and Shane Steichen (+1000) are strong contenders for the award
With a roughly a quarter of the NFL season already in the books, today we’ll look at the top contenders for the 2023 NFL Coach of the Year award.
2023 NFL Coach of the Year Odds
COY betting trends
While Brian Daboll captured this award last year with a 9-7-1 record, the previous nine winners of NFL Coach of the Year all won at least 11 games while averaging 12.1 victories. Over the past decade, the average COY team also racked up 5.2 more Ws than the previous campaign.
In addition to piling up wins and showing improvement, Coach of the Year teams need to exceed expectations. In the past 10 years, award winners topped their preseason Vegas win totals by at least two games, and six COYs won at least 4.5 games more than expected.
ANYONE ELSE READY TO RUN THROUGH A BRICK WALL FOR DAN CAMPBELL RIGHT NOW?! pic.twitter.com/eQm273CjZU
— Woodward Sports Network (@woodwardsports) September 29, 2023
Dan Campbell favored
Dan Campbell (+350) is the chalk pick after his Lions decimated the Packers on Thursday night to improve to 2-2. Playing in a mediocre NFC North division, his team could easily get to 12 wins. That would give Detroit three more victories than last season and 2.5 more than their 9.5 win over-under heading into 2023.
McDaniel loses ground
Mike McDaniel (+400) was the favorite before Miami was crushed by Buffalo on Sunday. The Dolphins had the same number of wins (9) as the Lions in 2022 and same win total (9.5) heading into the year.
While McDaniel’s club is off to a better start (3-1 vs 2-2), Detroit has a clearer path to a division title. Seven of the past 10 COY winners claimed their division.
Mike McDaniel to Sean McDermott “I respect tf out of you” pic.twitter.com/pGLd8sIovj
— Logan Macaluso (@L__Maca) October 1, 2023
AFC South Longshots
Two first year head coaches, DeMeco Ryans (+500) and Shane Steichen (+1000), have everything we’re looking for in a Coach of the Year candidate. Houston (3-13-1) and Indianapolis (4-12-1) both had miserable records last year with matching 6.5 win totals entering the season.
With every team in the AFC South currently at 2-2, a division title is not out of the question for either franchise. Especially if C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson continue to show superstar potential.
CJ Stroud starting off his career on a tear 🔥 pic.twitter.com/AGz8fblUcd
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) October 2, 2023
McVay in the mix?
Could Sean McVay (+2000) be in the mix for his second-career Coach of the Year award? While a NFC West title isn’t in the cards, the 2-2 Rams are a lock to outperform their expected win total (6.5) and 5-12 record from last season with Cooper Kupp set to rejoin the team.
Matt LaFleur (+3300) is a strong longshot as he’ll get extra credit for getting into the playoffs without Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay finished with one fewer win (8) than Detroit (9) in 2022 and had a 7.5 expected win total coming into 2023, compared to the Lions’ 9.5.
With a soft schedule on the horizon, a Packers division title is not out of the question. Don’t sleep on LaFleur.
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