Texans to go worst to first in AFC South and other Division Winner Picks

• Miami, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and Kansas City are favored to win their respective AFC divisions
  
• Joe Burrow and the Bengals (+425) are a longshot in the AFC North due to an unrelenting schedule
  
• DeMeco Ryans’ Texans (+260) have a shot to go from worst to first in the AFC South 

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A lot has changed in the AFC over the first six weeks of the NFL season. Aaron Rodgers is long gone, Bill Belichick is on the hot seat, Sean Payton is a laughing stock, Kansas City is dreadfully boring on offense, the Dolphins are unstoppable, and, well, the Chargers are the Chargers. Nothing has changed there, unfortunately.

Starting with the AFC East, we’ll examine the updated division odds and make our picks to win each one. Before we dive in, here’s where you can find the best Super Bowl betting tips and the top betting sites for NFL football in 2023.

AFC East Futures

Team
Miami Dolphins	-150	-150	-150
Buffalo Bills	+125	+125	+125
New York Jets	+1800	+1800	+1800
New England Patriots	+12500	+12500	+12500

Miami or Buffalo?

Miami (-150) is favored to win the AFC East over Buffalo (+125). The Dolphins (5-1) have one more win heading into Sunday, but play the Eagles and Chiefs over the next three weeks. Mike McDaniel’s club has the second-most total yards (2,992) through six games in league history, however, they’ve played three of the worst teams in the NFL (Panthers, Giants, Broncos).

With matchups on tap with the Patriots, Buccaneers and Broncos over the next month, the Bills look the better value as of today. Sean McDermott’s squad is third in Total Team DVOA (38%), one spot higher than the Fins (28.2%), who have the 27th ranked defense. This division battle could come down to the final week of the season when Buffalo travels to Miami.

Tua Tagovailoa ranks first among QBs in:

– Passing yards (1,876)
– Passing yards per attempt (9.5)
– Passing TDs (14)
– Passer rating (114.1)
– 20+ yard completions (13)
– % of passes past first down marker (48.7%) pic.twitter.com/mAOqfbtIlE

— PFF (@PFF) October 16, 2023

AFC West Futures

Team
Kansas City Chiefs	-550	-550	-550
Los Angeles Chargers	+425	+425	+425
Las Vegas Raiders	+1600	+1600	+1600
Denver Broncos	+10000	+10000	+10000

KC keeps streak alive

Kansas City (-550) is heavy chalk to capture their eighth-consecutive AFC West title. Andy Reid’s boys still have battles with the Dolphins, Eagles, Bills and Bengals remaining on their schedule, as well as two matchups with the Chargers (+425). But, they already have a 3-win edge in the standings on their divisional rivals.

Barring an injury to Patrick Mahomes, this one is already over.

AFC North Futures

Team
Baltimore Ravens	+120	+120	+120
Cleveland Browns	+260	+260	+260
Cincinnati Bengals	+425	+425	+425
Pittsburgh Steelers	+450	+450	+450

Wide open race

While Cincinnati (+425) somehow found a way to get to their bye week at 3-3 despite Joe Burrow’s nagging calf injury, oddsmakers still view the Bengals as a longshot in the AFC North. This is due to an unrelenting schedule that will see them face the 49ers, Bills, Jaguars and Chiefs, along with tough in-division matchups.

At 4-2, Baltimore (+120) is favored to win the North. Yet, there are no cupcake matchups on their slate either. Could Cleveland (+260) or Pittsburgh (+450) close the gap? Anything is possible with Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner T.J. Watt, but the Steelers have been a disaster on offense. Meanwhile, the Browns have a historically-dominant defense and a pervert quarterback with rotator cuff issues. We’ll stick with the Ravens (+120).

“Gotta get better.” – Joe Burrow sounds like a QB who has a lot more he wants to prove this season@Bengals | @evanwashburn pic.twitter.com/30jmptLWIG

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) October 15, 2023

AFC South Futures

Team
Jacksonville Jaguars	-125	-125	-125
Houston Texans	+260	+260	+260
Indianapolis Colts	+650	+650	+650
Tennessee Titans	+650	+650	+650

Texans go worst to first

Jacksonville (-125) has reeled off three-straight wins over Atlanta, Buffalo and Indianapolis. Heading into their Thursday Nighter with the Saints, Doug Pederson’s crew lead the division by one game over the Texans (+260) and Colts (+650). However, Trevor Lawrence still has rough matchups on tap with the 49ers, Bengals and Ravens.

By virtue of playing a last-place schedule, Houston gets the Panthers, Cardinals and Broncos – three franchises who will be battling for the worst record in the NFL. Additionally, DeMeco Ryans’ team already defeated the Jaguars 37-10 on the road and will host their next meeting in late November. We like the Texans to go from worst to first in the AFC South.