Patrick Mahomes to outgun Brock Purdy in Super Bowl 58

  • Head-to-head quarterback props are available between Patrick Mahomes and Brock PurdyΒ 
  • Mahomes is +20000 to match Steve Young’s six-TD-passing performance in Super Bowl 29
  • Super Bowl 58 kicks off from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, NV at 6 pm ET on Feb. 11, 2024

Patrick Mahomes is a two-time NFL MVP and two-time Super Bowl MVP. Brock Purdy was the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. One is considered to be among the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the sport while the other is considered by many to be a “game manager.

Which QB will come out on top in Super Bowl 58? Today, we’ll look at Quarterback Passing Props for both men.Β Before we do, check out the best Super Bowl 58 betting tips and find smart advice on how to bet on 2024 Super Bowl Props.

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Head-to-Head Passing Props

BovadaBrock PurdyPatrick MahomesNeither
1st TD Pass-105-125
First to Reach 200+ Passing Yds+145-155+1200
First to Reach 250+ Passing Yds+195+110+300
First to Reach 300+ Passing Yds+450+260-155
Most Completions+165-220
Higher Completion %-105-125
Highest Passer Rating-130+100
Most Passing Yards+120-160
Most Passing Attempts+170-230

Mahomes vs Purdy

Patrick Mahomes is the chalk pick in every head-to-head category with one exception. Brock Purdy’s 113 passer rating was the highest of all NFL starters this season, easily topping Mahomes’ mark of 92.6. It’s also interesting to see the Chiefs superstar favored to finish with more passing yards than Purdy given the sophomore QB outpaced him in both the Divisional Round and Conference Championship.

The Niners’ starter is averaging more passing attempts per game (35.0 vs 34.3) this postseason with fewer completions (21.5 vs 23.3). However, Andy Reid’s club has gotten off to hot starts throughout their playoff run. Mahomes (-125) will toss the game’s first TD.

What will they do first?

BovadaBrock PurdyPatrick Mahomes
Throw a Touchdown Pass-275-290
Throw an Interception+200+210

Touchdown or Interception?

Patrick Mahomes has passed for 11 TDs with no picks in his past six playoff games. Making it unlikely he throws an interception (+210) before putting six points on the board for Kansas City. However, the 28-year-old tossed two INTs against San Francisco in Super Bowl 54.

Like Mahomes (-290), Purdy is expected to score points through the air (-275) before making a mistake. Mr. Irrelevant gave the ball away once in the NFC Championship, but he only tossed 12 INTs in 18 combined regular season and playoff games. Still, with the 24-year-old’s nerves at an all-time high, an interception (+200) could come first.

Patrick MahomesFirst TD Pass
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-125
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Throw an INTWhat Will Purdy Do 1st?
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+200
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Exact Passing TDs

BovadaBrock PurdyPatrick Mahomes
Zero+475+550
1+170+195
2+195+185
3+475+425
4+2000+1400
5+10000+6000
6 or more+20000

Throwing deep

Steve Young set the Super Bowl record with six touchdown passes against the Chargers in 1995. If you wager on Mahomes matching the 49ers all-time great, you could nab a 200-1 payout. While it’s certainly unlikely, the two-time Super Bowl MVP threw for 423 yards and three TDs in his last meetup with the Niners in October 2022.

Mahomes only passed for more than two TDs in a game twice in 19 contests this year. Meanwhile, Purdy had three games with 4+ passing TDs and two 3-TD outings.

Best Bet

Kansas City’s defense ranks No. 4 in the NFL versus the pass, allowing just 181.1 passing yards and 1.1 passing TDs per game. They’re also much worse against the run and the Niners have Christian McCaffrey.

With CMC having already scored four playoff rushing scores this postseason, there’s always a chance Purdy throws zero passing TDs (+475).

ZeroPurdy Passing TDs
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+475
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Steve Starr

Steve is the quintessential American sports enthusiast. He has mastered the art of Sundays, devoting them to football, and barbecue parties. He proudly wears the hats of a good father, husband and a great dog owner. Aside from his decades of contributing to different top-tier sports publications, Steve has also found his niche on Twitter, where he publishes funny and relatable sports-related insights. When he's not busy tweeting, Steve loves to watch each game unfold live. He possesses an innate talent for finding humor in the sports world, appreciating both the thrilling moments and the comedic mishaps that make each event unique.

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