Sinner vs Alcaraz Indian Wells Odds: Close Match Expected in Semifinal

Read My Top Sportsbooks’s Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz 2024 prediction and explore stats and the latest Indian Wells odds.

  • Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz , BNP Paribas Open
  • March 15, 2024
  • Indian Wells Tennis Garden, California
  • Outdoor, Hardcourt
  • Fubo, Tennis Channel

Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz 2024 Indian Wells Odds

Jannik Sinner, amidst an undefeated start to the 2024 calendar year, is the current favorite to advance to the final over Carlos Alcaraz. The German-born Italian is (-139) to oust the reigning Indian Wells champ. Alcaraz will hope to prove sportsbooks wrong with a price of (+112) indicating an implied win probability of 47.2%.

Indian Wells OpenBetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovada
Jannik Sinner-139-139-139
Carlos Alcaraz+112+112+112

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Jannik Sinner Recent Games and Record at Indian Wells

The third-ranked Italian has an impressive record of 29 wins and 1 loss in his last 30 matches since last fall. During this period, he clinched the Australian Open title, the Davis Cup title, and secured a runner-up position at the Nitto ATP Finals. Sinner continues to display top-notch performance at the Indian Wells Masters, securing consecutive straight-set victories against Thanasi Kokkinakis, Jan-Lennard Struff, Ben Shelton, and Jiri Lehecka.

The most recent two wins are the most impressive considering the strong form of Shelton and Lehecka coming into those respective matches. Notably, Shelton was the lone man to defeat Sinner in the last six months. Sinner has undergone an incredible transformation, incorporating new dimensions into his game. These subtle yet highly effective adjustments have significantly elevated his performance. 

With increased experience at the Indian Wells Masters, Sinner is competing in his fourth main draw. Remarkably, he has yet to lose a set in the desert. Following his semifinal appearance in 2023, the Italian is undoubtedly eager for this long-awaited rematch with Alcaraz. Winning here would earn him his second ATP Masters 1000 title, following his triumph in Toronto last August.

Jannik SinnerTo Win
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Carlos Alcaraz 2024 Performance and Expectations

Is Carlos Alcaraz’s reign as defending Indian Wells champion coming to an end? The dominant performance over Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals certainly pushes back on that narrative. But his recent form overall has raised concerns, with Alcaraz openly discussing his struggles and how his confidence has suffered during an eight-month title drought. Given the high standards he has set for himself, the scrutiny he faces is always significant.

The 20-year-old Spaniard began his campaign against Matteo Arnaldi in the second round after receiving a bye in the first round. Despite a slow start, Alcaraz managed to defeat the young Italian 6-7(5), 6-0, 6-1. In the second round, Alcaraz comfortably defeated 31st seed Felix Auger-Aliassime with a scoreline of 6-2, 6-3. He then avenged his previous defeat to Fabian Marozsan from last year with a convincing 6-3, 6-3 victory over the Hungarian in the fourth round of the Indian Wells Masters.

At the Australian Open, he was eliminated in the semifinals, followed by two unsuccessful tournaments on dirt in South America. Now in a 2023 semifinals rematch against the streaking Sinner, it feels like this match is up for grabs. The recent momentum is swung towards Sinner’s favor, but if history is any indication, Alcaraz should continue to dominate at Indian Wells. The head-to-head record is all tied at 4-4 as well if you include Alcaraz’s win on the Challenger tour back in Alicante in 2019.

Carlos AlcarazTo Win
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Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Indian Wells Odds, Prediction and Free Betting Pick

Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz both appear to be in great form at the moment. Carlitos has struggled over the past eight months or so compared to expectations, but his dominance at Indian Wells should be well-respected. Sinner has lost just once in his last 30 matches, adding some much-needed versatility to his game.

While I would lean towards betting the Italian, as he is on a remarkable pace and there have been signs of concern from Alcaraz, I have a few reasons to be cautious. First, the current Indian Wells odds do not appeal to me much, with Sinner being a (-139) favorite. Then, Alcaraz has his number at this tournament after beating him en route to the title last year. He will also most likely be the fan favorite and should receive the majority of the crowd backing. 

But, most importantly, the courts at Indian Wells are notoriously slow for an outdoor hardcourt tournament. Daniil Medvedev, albeit sarcastically, believes it is impossible these courts are not clay. Alcaraz and Sinner will most likely be scheduled for the high-profile primetime match, played at night. The absence of the harsh desert sun will make for even slower conditions.

A slower game will benefit Alcaraz, whose exceptional ability on clay proves his favoring of a slower battle with more rallies and creative shot-making opportunities. Therefore, I cannot back a side in this game. However, I do believe this will be a cagey affair as the two figure each other out in the first set. Each after enough gas in the tank after easy wins all tournament to fight back if they drop a set, and should have the confidence and talent to do so regardless.

I see this match being a super entertaining 3-set thriller, providing us with a significant edge on the current total. I will back the over for a full unit. We may even cash on a 2-set game with a tiebreak in the mix.

Over 22.5Total Games
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