Don’t Count Out American in Late-Night U.S. Open Semifinals Match

  • What: Women’s U.S. Open semifinals, Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka
  • When: September 7, 2023
  • Time: 8:15 PM EST
  • Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Queens, New York, USA
  • TV: ESPN

A 4th overall meeting between Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys will decide who will represent the last half of this year’s women’s U.S. Open final. Sabalenka leads the matchup 2-1, with Keys hoping to make things square in the Big Apple late on a Thursday evening. With such a dominant season so far, it’s difficult to believe she will falter here. But Madison Keys should present quite the test, and we believe the odds may be tilted a bit too far in the Belarusian’s direction.

Read our Madison Keys prediction for the semifinals matchup in Queens, with the winner advancing to face either Coco Gauff or Karolína Muchová in the Championship.

Madison Keys Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys is stacked up to be a fairly clear result. Bookmakers see Sabalenka defeating Keys around 75% of the time, for a price of -310 on highly-rated Bovada. The last time the two matched up, Sabalenka won in straight sets at Wimbledon 2023 as a moderate favorite.

U.S. Open SFsBovada
Madison Keys+250
Aryna Sabalenka-310

Heavy Hitters Set to Duel in U.S. Open Semifinal

Coincidentally, both players are coming off 6-1, 6-4 wins in the quarterfinals. The pair boast near-70% 1st serve points won, with serve speeds typically up in the high-90s. These numbers indicate Keys and Sabalenka are strong hitters who rely on big serves to win points. What remains to be seen, however, is their ability to limit errors under the bright lights. Unforced errors tend to be the x-factor in women’s matches, which are generally decided by shorter rallies. 

An All-American Final Still in the Cards?

Madison Keys has never looked better than she has in this tournament. The 28-year-old seems to be shaping into perfect form, defeating fellow American Jessica Pegula along the way. After long runs at the Australian Open in 2022, Wimbledon in 2023, and now the U.S. Open, it’s clear the 17th-ranked Keys is in her prime. 

Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka is looking to make a case for herself as the best women’s player in tennis. The world number 2 hasn’t dropped a set in New York so far, albeit with a relatively easy path to the semifinals. Keys will represent her toughest opponent yet, and with less time to prepare, Sabalenka should have her hands full. A Coco Gauff vs Madison Keys prediction for the finals is not out of reach for American fans.

Aryna Sabalenka On Her Way to Hard Court Dominance

After an Australian Open victory to begin the year, Aryna Sabalenka is just two matches and three days away from taking both hard-court Slams this year. The recent losses of Elena Rabakina and Iga Swiatek bode well for Sabalenka, leaving the Belarusian as the clear frontrunner to take home the prestigious American trophy.

Sabalenka has powered her way to a 26-5 record on hard court, including a tournament win in what appears to be her most effective surface. Concrete generally favors more baseline-heavy players who can sustain long rallies, which makes it especially valuable that Sabalenka recovers from playing just the night before. Without her fitness up to par, Aryna Sabalenka may struggle to keep up with Madison Keys the later the match goes into the night.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys will be dictated by each player’s ability to reduce mistakes and stay calm under the bright lights. Both players are righties with two-handed backhands that rely on their serve game and athleticism to force their opponent into difficult situations. Look for the two competitors to take some risks in the early going, hoping to snag momentum and win the psychological battle before digging in. I would not be surprised to see this one go the full 3 sets.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Prediction and Breakdown

Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise Keys is one of the final 8 women competing this year; 2023 will mark her 3rd trip to the semifinals in Queens. While Sabalenka has looked like a woman on a mission, she has proven over the years to crack under pressure. With a typically raucous New York environment, Sabalenka will most likely have the crowd against her. 

While I understand Sabalenka should be a considerable favorite on paper, Keys has become well-used to playing in Queens and should get a push from the fans. +250 is too juicy of a number to pass up. For my Madison Keys prediction, I recommend taking a small stab at her ML price and hoping for some 3-set variance in what could be a back-and-forth battle.

Madison KeysTo Beat Aryna Sabalenka
★★★★★
+250
Bet now

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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.