Medvedev vs. Rublev (9/6): U.S. Open 2023 Predictions

Daniil Medvedev has what it takes to win it all, but his friend Andrey Rublev may give him a test in this quarterfinal matchup of the U.S. Open 2023.

  • When: September 6, 2023
  • Time: 1:15 pm EST (estimated)
  • Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Queens, NY
  • TV: ESPN

Who do Bettors Favor?

According to the best-rated online sportsbooks, Daniil Medvedev is favored to defeat his fellow compatriot Andrey Rublev and advance to the semifinals of the U.S. Open 2023. The world number 3 is priced at a hefty -250, implying a win probability of 71.4%, compared to Rublev’s +205 underdog odds.

U.S. Open QFsBetOnline ReviewBetUS ReviewBovada
Daniil Medvedev-250-250-250
Andrey Rublev+210+205+200

MTS U.S. Open Tennis Breakdown: Medvedev vs. Rublev

Daniil Medvedev’s U.S. Open 2023 run thus far has been a topic of conversation not for his athletic performances, but for his constant spats with American fans. A recurring theme of Medvedev’s visits to New York, he has taken exception to boisterous viewers he feels are blatantly attempting to distract him during play. That being said, these antics do not appear to disturb him, and in fact may even fuel him to perform at his best, something he testified to during his magical 2021 U.S. Open run.

So far this year, Medvedev has taken care of business but looked vulnerable throughout. After dropping only two games in a straight-sets win over the Hungarian Attila Balázs in the first round, Medvedev experienced some shaky moments against the Aussie Christopher O’Connell. The world number 3 dropped the 3rd set in a tiebreak, losing a 4-2 lead and failing to convert two match points. And again, in his next matchup, he seemed to lose focus and allowed Sebastian Baez to make a late charge. After falling down 2-5 in the third set, he managed to wake up and rally to a tiebreak, losing 3 match points in the process before finally finishing the job.

In his last outing vs. Alex de Minaur, Medvedev dropped the first set in uncharacteristic fashion, giving up two service games to lose 2-6. Promptly, he gathered up his belongings and left the court for a half an hour, taking his one opportunity to change clothes. Under the current ruleset such a break is allowed, but rarely is it taken that early and for that long. After the dodgy stunt, he cruised to three straight set wins (boosted by the use of a chair-approved inhaler) to finish the job and send de Minaur packing. His actions left fans and players frustrated, believing his tactics were unsportsmanlike.

Fan-favorite Andrey Rublev’s U.S. Open 2023 tour has been much less controversial. Following three straight victories over French foes, Rublev faced tough competition in the up-and-coming Brit Jack Draper. While the two seemed due for a long and arduous match, Draper’s legs gave out and Rublev took over late, relying on his unforgiving serve to snuff out any remaining hope from the youngster.

I don’t believe much stock should be held in Rublev’s early wins. His victory over Gael Monfils was the Frenchman’s 11th straight loss to a top-10 opponent, indicating a clear talent valley between the two, and he was then pitted against Arthur Rinderknech, whose placement in the 3rd round was a result of Matteo Berrettini’s withdrawal.

MTS Best U.S. Open 2023 Bets and Predictions

I believe the underlying story of this all-Russian showdown is their strong familiarity with each other. As childhood friends, the two players have battled since they were 10 years old. In fact, Rublev is the godfather to Medvedev’s daughter Alisa.

While Daniil Medvedev owns the head-to-head record between the two players at 5-2 dating back to 2019, Andrey Rublev has actually won 2 of the last 3, all on hard court. Medvedev’s recent struggles deeply concern me, and I would not feel comfortable backing him at the current price. These two buddies are sure to know the tendencies of each and how they stack up. I don’t believe either are going to give in easily and should fight until the very end for a spot in the semifinals of this grand tournament.

For these reasons, I am targeting the over here. Set at 39.5 games, the books are expecting a back-and-forth battle. Both players have shown command over their serve, enjoying first serve percentages over 60% in 6 of their 8 combined matches in their U.S. Open 2023 runs. I would not be surprised at multiple tiebreak sets in this match, boding well for a grueling affair where their physical states may make the difference in the end.

Over39.5 Total Games
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Will Chace

From Boston, Will's passion for sports is more of a hereditary characteristic than a learned hobby. Besides rooting for his hometown teams, he follows MMA heavily and will consume just about any sports-related content. In college, Will combined his passion for sports and writing as a journalist. Now, he provides detailed betting analysis to help others profit off their sports knowledge too. Will spots insights casual fans may miss and delivers his guidance in a direct, no-nonsense style. In his downtime, you can find him unwinding on the couch and watching foreign film classics.