Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev face off in a match more fitting for a final than a quarterfinal. Fans will be treated to an early showcase of the top talent in the Vienna Open on Friday. Rublev is already holding a ticket to Turin, but both would love to earn more prize money along the way, starting with a victory over a common rival. Read on to access an expert Alexander Zverev vs Andrey Rublev prediction and the latest on Alexander Zverev injury concerns.
- Alexander Zverev vs Andrey Rublev, The Vienna Open Quarterfinals (ATP)
- October 27, 2023
- 11:30 AM EST
- Center Court, Wiener Stadthalle, Vienna, Austria
- Hard (indoor) surface
- Tennis Channel, Prime Video
Alexander Zverev vs Andrey Rublev Prediction: Who do Sportsbooks Favor?
Alexander Zverev and Andrey Rublev are listed on books at near pick-em odds, meaning there is no clear-cut favorite. Rublev is currently a slight underdog on highly-rated online sportsbook BetOnline at (-102). The higher-seeded Sascha can be bought at standard-vig odds of (-110) at Bovada.
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Alexander Zverev Injury History in 2023
The German-born Russian Alexander Zverev sustained a devastating ankle injury in last year’s French Open. The knock prevented him from playing for many months as he nursed his way back to health, and affected his mental game significantly. Only after several shaky performances and early tourney exits was he able to shake off his rust. Since Wimbledon, Zverev has looked in peak form. Sascha won a title in Chengdu and made it to the semifinals in Beijing, earning him a top-10 ATP ranking.
Zverev has been dealing with off-the-court issues as well, stemming from two domestic assault allegations. The situations involve different partners, one of whom is the mother of his young daughter. Due to insufficient evidence in one case, Zverev was cleared of wrongdoing, but the other is still pending review.
Andrey Rublev Season Breakdown
The current world no. 5 Andrey Rublev had a strong showing this year at the U.S. Open, where he eventually fell to childhood friend Daniil Medvedev. He has since topped off his Grand Slam quarterfinals appearance with a runners-up finish at the Shanghai Masters.
The Russian is now 52-21 in the 2023 season, with other title wins including a maiden Masters 1000 at Monte-Carlo. His QF spot at the U.S. Open was his 3rd quarterfinals appearance in a major this year, with equivalent performances at the Wimbledon and Australian Open.
Recent Form and Confidence of Zverev and Rublev
Both Zverev and Rublev have yet to drop a set in Vienna so far, a streak that is surely to fall for one of the two on Friday. Sascha breezed past Wild Card entrant and Austrian-born Sebastian Ofner in straight sets (6-4, 6-1). That victory earned him a draw with Cameron Norrie, which he also quickly dispatched (6-2, 6-4).
Andrey Rublev’s matches have not been as easy. He was taken to a tiebreaker in the opening set of his tournament against Alexei Popyrin, but prevailed and won the next set 6-3. That battle brought him into the hands of rising Italian Matteo Arnaldi. The youngster was able to make things close at the beginning, dropping the first set 7-5, but inevitably fell to the number-3 seed. Rublev’s win clinched qualification for the ATP Finals in Turin, joining Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner in the season-ending finale.
Alexander Zverev owns the head-to-head series 5-2, although Andrey Rublev has won the last two. Those matches were played this year in Dubai and Bastad, albeit much earlier in the season. Rublev has actually won more of the total games (56) than Zverev, as he has come out on top in 30 of their games. Both players are equally good on hard surfaces, with only one match separating the two in records this season (23-12 to 22-13).
Alexander Zverev vs Andrey Rublev Prediction and Free Betting Pick
Rublev has a tendency to play to the level of his opponents, and that has cost him in many tournaments. Zverev will have the fresher legs and can dictate the game flow better, compared to the more reactionary Russian.
Both players love to keep their back heels on the baseline and force mistakes from the outside. Zverev’s height gives him an increased advantage, but both are big hitters that can serve their way out of holes if necessary. When looking at this matchup, it’s hard not to think of all the similarities, not only physically but from a career perspective as well. The long-haired,tennis stars are both in the top 10, in their primes, and with similar levels of consistency and experience.
With Rublev having already qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, he has less to play for and therefore, less motivation. Both Zverev and Rublev have their sights set on Slams and ATP championships, not necessarily the Vienna Open trophy. So while I lean Zverev, I hesitate to advocate more than a small stake in what could be a coin-flip matchup with other unknown variables in play.
Additionally, I only see Zverev as a slight favorite in this match, at around (-130). Therefore, at (-110), we are not getting tremendous value. Stay conservative and bet a small stake on Sascha to advance to the semifinals on Friday.
Odds are accurate at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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