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- WHAT: US Senate Best Bets – Upcoming Bernie Sanders Election
- WHEN: Tuesday, November 5th, 2024
- WHY: Vermont Senate Seat Victory Margin For Sanders And More
Sometimes, the race is all but decided. Honestly, no one is touching Bernie Sanders as he seeks yet another term in the US Senate. Now, US Senate Best Bets takes a look to see his victory margin and even try to project his voting percentage overall. Vermont has been a blue state forever in terms of the Senate. However, there may come a time when that changes. Now is clearly not that time
With the best political betting sites spotlighting the margin of victory, some took it a step further and set a number. The question now is will Bernie Sanders win by more or less than 38.5% of the vote? It’s a great question. Below is our table for the election that is still a bit less than 11 months from now. .
| Bernie Sanders Victory Margin |  |  |  |
| Over 38.5% | -120 | -135 | -145 |
| Under 38.5% | +120 | +125 | +130 |
US Senate Best Bets – Bernie Sanders Strikes Again
So, the US Senate Best Bets know that Bernie Sanders strikes again. Few candidates are like Sanders and yet there are more than a few who believe he is a “fat cat” in the truest sense. Again, it is fun to explore and poke out projection sites this early in the game. One of the biggest benefits is some of the previous results. Those help and can project out a potential margin of error along with winning margin.
Could a younger, more exuberant Republican candidate eat away at that margin some? It might be possible. However, this does not feel likely. Sanders is a lifer. He probably resents that remark. However, the reality is that the Vermont Senator has been in that seat since 2007. A fourth term is all but certain barring something unforeseen. It does not appear any scandal or such is on the horizon.
Sen. Bernie Sanders opposes giving Israel $10 billion in aid https://t.co/ErPsRrFI0S
— Rula (@rulaguerrero) December 6, 2023
Even something like this which will irk some voters will not make a dent in the chances that Bernie Sanders sees a fourth term in the US Senate. Again, there is just no one that can truly challenge him. It is fascinating to see how candidates just wilt against Sanders. It seems like none ever do have a chance against the 82 year old. Furthermore, the former Burlington Mayor shows no signs of slowing down in the least.
As some political pundits speculated, Sanders would be in the -10000 to -20000 to win in November. Basically, this is a nice way of saying that the Senate Run would indeed be extended six more years. When one sees a 99-99.5% chance of victory, just turn out the lights because the party is over. Those numbers represent the worst case scenario. Honestly, for US Senate Best Bets, let us move on to history with victory margins and more.
US Senate Best Bets And The Sanders Victory Margins
So, let us have some fun here. US Senate Best Bets and the Bernie Sanders Victory Margins focus on previous elections and how Sanders performed in those races. It is fascinating to see the evolution of how the numbers have shaken out. According to Ballotpedia, the Vermont Senator served 16 years in the US House Of Representatives.. He had failed a few times to win as an Independent but did stick to his roots.
When it comes down to numbers, a few definitely stick out for the long time political veteran. Even his winning margins in the House were extremely high. Few challenged Sanders too much. He defeated Peter Smith in 1990 to win his first term by 16.5%. Simply, he never was truly threatened even in that election as the Mayor of Burlington had parlayed his success into finally winning a Congressional seat.
Hello #ElectionTwitter and check out this map I made of the 1988 Vermont House of Representatives election by municipality.
Bernie Sanders narrowly lost Peter Smith, but would easily win in 1990. You can see a higher quality svg version on Wikipedia soon. pic.twitter.com/Dfin9GHnwV
— Dalton Herriott (@DaltonRHerriott) June 14, 2021
The seeds of a 1990 win were sown in 1988 as some believed Sanders was “too close” to winning. Either way, it paved the way for what has been a 30+ year career in Congress. After that initial win, it seems like the winning margins have only increased. Other than 1994, Sanders won in a cakewalk every other election cycle. Even his election to the Senate featured an easy win.
Again, Sanders won by 33% in 2006. That number increased to more than 46% in 2012. It really does seem that no candidate can mount much of a thrust against the “Independent.” It is amusing that he runs as a Democrat in the primaries but an independent in the general elections. With an almost 40% (39.9%) win in 2018, it leads us to go with a simple wager. Take Sanders to win by 39 or more percent again in November, 2024. It is easy money.
Hey, What About Other Fun Numbers?
Okay, US Senate Best Bets ponder some other fun numbers. For one, how far could the alternate line be tweaked here? Our answer is do not go above that 38.5 right now. The problem is that 40 number. Maybe go up to 39.5 which comes in at -110 on Bovada. The other question on Bovada online sportsbooks is the inevitable how close can Sanders get to 70%.
Also, money can be tossed in on that prop. It will be fun to see how Sanders actually fares in 2024. Our bet is to take the Under 70% if that number does not go past -120. Sanders undoubtedly will win but more candidates means the chance that some fractions of a percent get eaten up just enough. .
Finally, do not be afraid to explore some alternatives. Bovada offers along with a few other sites the chances of parties in various Senate elections without candidates. Some are curious what would happen in New Jersey if Robert Menendez had to vacate his seat. We see what is going on with George Santos. Hang tight there.
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