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- WHAT: Republican Iowa Caucus Best Bets – Donald Trump Victory Lap Edition
- WHEN: Monday, January 15th, 2024
- WHY: Iowa Caucus Victory Margin For Trump And More
Yes, the Republican primary race feels like everyone is fighting for second place. Bluntly, no one is coming close to Donald Trump in the Iowa. Now, Iowa Caucus Best Bets takes a look to see his victory margin and even try to project his voting percentage overall. The fun part is trying to figure out who would win without Trump as well. After all, there has to be some intrigue created here. Granted, some numbers may just surprise us yet as 2024 begins.
So, the best political betting sites spotlight the latest on what is going on in Election 2024. It is nice to be able to say that now on January 1st. Happy New Year by the way! The question remains will it be a happy one for any of the candidates not named Trump. How fast will some fall by the wayside? Granted, those odds never lie even if the politicians do.
| Donald Trump Victory Margin |  |  |  |
| Over 30% | +150 | +150 | +175 |
| 25-29.99% | +175 | +200 | +225 |
| 20-24.99% | +275 | +250 | +300 |
| 15-19.99% | +500 | +600 | +700 |
| 10-14.99% | +750 | +900 | +1000 |
| 5-9.99% | +1500 | +1600 | +2000 |
| 0-4.99% | +2000 | +2500 | +3000 |
Iowa Caucus Best Bets – Donald Trump Reigns Supreme
So, the Iowa Caucus Best Bets know that Donald Trump reigns supreme. Unfortunately for some, the only real question is how much does the former President win by in two weeks time? A few long-shot odds suggest a little quirk. Looking at the numbers has around a +2000 to +2500 that the two-time Republican nominee could lose in Iowa. That feels like it is unlikely even if some of the polling data is off.
Could Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, or anyone left erode Trump’s margin in the polls? The answer appears no or very minimal at this juncture. Currently, the numbers appear like this as 2024 begins. Numbers are courtesy of Five ThirtyEight.com.
- Donald Trump – 50%
- Ron DeSantis – 18.4%
- Nikki Haley – 15.7%
- Vivek Ramaswamy – 6%
- Chris Christie – 3.7%
Okay, there are a small faction of Iowa voters disappointed that candidates like Tim Scott dropped out so early. One wonders if Scott is on the short list to be a Vice President candidate. Could it be someone else? Either way, the political scene in the Republican Party feels like we are playing along to the same end game. It feels like Donald Trump will do battle with Joe Biden again this summer. Maybe this time, we will get some actual debates and not what happened in 2020.
No one should be shocked that Trump is a whopping -2500 to win in Iowa. Basically, this is a nice way of saying that Iowa is pretty much all-in for Trump right now. When one sees a 95%+ chance of victory, just turn out the lights because even if the polling data is off, it’s not that far off! The polls may be inflated but the reality is pretty clear. Honestly, for Iowa Caucus Best Bets make it easy to move on to things like props, margins, and some fringe wagers too.
Iowa Caucus Best Bets And The Trump Victory Margins
So, let us take things a step further. Iowa Caucus Best Bets and the Donald Trump Victory Margins like to focus on four years ago or even eight years ago. However, things are so divisive now that tossing those statistics out the window is pretty much a given. Think about it. Donald Trump remains the most polarizing political figure in the last three election cycles by far. There lies little margin. His base is fiercely loyal and now he has 3+ years of Joe Biden to hammer into voters’ minds.
When the numbers start rolling in, do not be surprised to see some similar to what we have seen in several polls. Trump has consistently led by as many as 30-40 percentage points. In a few extreme cases, those numbers crept into the 45-50% range. It is hard to find anything below 20 percent right now. Sure, anything can happen in the next two weeks. However, the chances someone actually beats Trump at this stage is almost zero.
The Des Moines Register's Iowa caucus poll has a history of accurately predicting the winner. According to the latest poll, former President Donald Trump is expected to win the race, with the largest lead ever recorded in a competitive GOP primary.… https://t.co/6VxDaapSyw
— The America One News (@am1_news) December 29, 2023
The largest margin of victory in Iowa was by Bob Dole in 1988. Dole managed to win by 13 percentage points. Unlike 1988, Trump expects to smoke that number and blow it out of the water. Furthermore, there is no George H.W. Bush this time to thwart Trump or his base. Even with the 90+ cases surrounding the candidate, little of that matters. If anything. Trump keeps gaining momentum.
Again, most expect Trump to at least double that Dole winning margin. Tripling may have been a passing fancy as things have stabilized since American Thanksgiving. Can Haley or DeSantis get close to that 20% number? That may be the biggest question of all come two weeks time. The polling has kind of flip-flopped between the two. Does Haley have enough left to finish second or will Trump’s margin increase a little more? Take Trump to win by at least 30 points here.
More Fun With Numbers?
Okay, Iowa Caucus Best Bets ponder more fun with numbers. Bovada online sportsbooks asked a few things err made us ponder several more potential wagers. Some of the props seem outrageous but Nikki Haley to finish second is interesting at +150 on Bovada. That number figures to shorten a bit again between now and January 15th.
Also, money can be tossed on the over 49.5% prop. At this moment, Trump is even money to finish at 49.51% or better. The Over at 48.5 rolls in at -120 for those wondering. Do not worry. We have a few more betting possibilities.
Finally, Bovada, BetOnline, and BetUS offer some fringe props too. There is Mark Cuban going third party on everyone and launching an Independent campaign. That comes in at +700. Some suggest the possibility at least. The net fortune of a candidate at greater than $1 billion at +170 is not bad either.
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