- What: Dallas Wings vs. Las Vegas Aces
- When: Tuesday, September 26th
- Where: Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas, NV
The Las Vegas Aces are in the driver’s seat. After a decisive win over the Dallas Wings in the opening game of their WNBA semifinal series, they’re looking to double down on their success in Game 2.
Let’s take a look at the money line odds in this matchup.
The Las Vegas Aces look all-in to snatch another victory against the Dallas Wings, but smart money says to bet the under 176 at -110 odds.
Game 1 was a showstopper. The Aces, led by reigning MVP A’ja Wilson, racked up a clean 97-83 win. Wilson dropped 34 points, shot 15-of-21 from the floor, and snatched eight rebounds. She dominated the third quarter, outscoring the entire Wings team.
The only player in @wnba playoff history with back-to-back games with
30+ PTS / 5+ REB / 3+ BLK
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) September 25, 2023
But here’s where things get interesting for those watching the total points. Despite Wilson’s heroics, the Aces only scored 26 points in the third quarter.
If we look at patterns, this might be a sign that the Aces, although likely to win, won’t push the point total over 176.
Let’s remember Wilson is also the Defensive Player of the Year for two seasons running now. She’s as likely to shut down the Wings’ scoring as she is to rack up points.
So, let’s talk about the Wings. Their performance in Game 1 wasn’t exactly highlight reel material. Arike Ogunbowale, their regular-season high scorer, was held to just 12 points.
Onward & Upward ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/we1C7KyKLU
— Dallas Wings (@DallasWings) September 25, 2023
The Wings’ offense was further hampered by 12 turnovers, which the Aces converted into 21 points. If the Wings don’t clean up their act, their scoring will be as dry as the Nevada desert.
The Aces are tremendous favorites on the money line in this matchup according to Bovada.
I can’t recall seeing a -625 price on a playoff matchup before. The implied probability of the Aces to win is around 86%.
The money line price is too high for me to advise betting on the Aces to win this game. There isn’t enough value here.
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But while the Aces might be a safe bet to win, the over/under of 176 points is a different ball game. Let’s chop it up and see why the under might be the real score here.
|Over 176 Points||-110||-110||-110|
|Under 176 Points||-110||-110||-110|
That being said, Wings’ coach Latricia Trammell is no slouch. She’s already identified the issues with the point of attack and on-ball screens.
Expect her to have the Wings drilled and ready to limit the Aces’ scoring opportunities in Game 2.
Looking at the perimeter, the Aces Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young each knocked down five 3-pointers in the first game. But don’t let that fool you.
The Wings will be expecting it this time and snapping at the Aces heels to prevent a repeat performance.
The total is the bet to target in this game if you’re interested in value.
These teams are familiar enough with each other now, I can’t imagine them scoring more than 176 points combined.
I would not recommend betting on Over 176 points at Bovada.
In short, the Aces are looking strong for the win, but don’t count on a high-scoring game. Wilson’s defensive prowess and the Wings’ likely improvements should keep the total score under 176.
So while the Aces might be rolling in Vegas, the under at -110 odds might be the winning ticket.
Remember, folks, sports betting isn’t a game of luck. It’s a game of stats, strategy, and savvy.
So, while the Aces might be the obvious bet for the win, the smart money says to play the under. Happy betting!
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