- New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Sunday, October 8th
- Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas, NV
Regarding the WNBA, there’s no denying that the 2023 Finals are set to be an epic showdown. The juggernauts of the league, the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty are getting ready to face off.
Now, while the Aces may have had a fantastic season, let me tell you why my chips are on the Liberty to pull off the unexpected win.
Firstly, let’s look at the stats. With a 32-8 record, the Liberty have been electric this season, averaging 107.8 points per 100 possessions and giving up just 97. They’ve got offensive firepower in spades, led by the dynamic duo of Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu.
Stewart, the 2023 WNBA MVP, is a force to be reckoned with, averaging 23.0 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. She’s been instrumental for the Liberty, adding a high-impact presence missing in previous seasons.
MVP MVP MVP 😤
Stew York City gets it done by ANY means necessary 🦾 pic.twitter.com/JeSTWpXolb
— New York Liberty (@nyliberty) October 1, 2023
Now, let’s chat about Ionescu, the youngest superstar in the game. She’s been dropping dimes and draining threes at a 44.8% clip, proving herself a major threat from the perimeter.
This guard-big combo of Stewart and Ionescu has been a game-changer for the Liberty, making them a formidable opponent for any team.
While the Aces have a formidable roster, their adaptability on the road is where the Liberty shines. During the regular season, they dismantled the Aces in both their trips to Brooklyn. If they can replicate that level of performance, the Liberty stand a solid chance of stealing a few games and potentially the series.
The Aces have struggled to replace Candace Parker. Parker had surgery for a foot fracture in July and has yet to return to the court. The Aces are not anticipated to have Parker back for this series.
I don’t think Aces will be able to replace the scoring and defense Parker added to this team. I can see the Aces getting exposed by Jonquel Jones and Breanna Stewart.
It seems like oddsmakers have mispriced the Aces at -195 to win this game. The implied probability of those odds is 66%, and this game feels much closer to a coin flip.
I would not recommend the Aces to win at -195 on the moneyline.
Now, let’s talk value. The Liberty are currently sitting at a juicy moneyline of +165. In terms of pure value, there’s no better bet on the board. The Aces might have the better record, but the Liberty have shown they can hang with the best and pull out clutch wins when it matters most.
The New York Liberty are primed to shock the world against the Las Vegas Aces in the 2023 WNBA Finals, offering a tempting moneyline of +165 that’s too good to pass up.
I recommend betting on the Liberty to win this game at +165 odds at BetUS.
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And finally, let’s discuss the total. At 172.5 points, it’s set high for my liking. Both teams have been efficient on defense, with the Aces giving up just 95.8 points per 100 possessions and the Liberty not far behind at 97.
|Over 172.5 Points||-110||-108||-110|
|Under 172.5 Points||-110||-112||-110|
This series’ first game will likely be a defensive battle as both teams look to set the tone. That’s why I’m backing the under at -110 odds.
𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗦𝗧𝗔𝗚𝗘 𝗜𝗦 𝗦𝗘𝗧
The Las Vegas Aces vs. the New York Liberty in the 2023 @WNBA Finals. Meet us at The House!
Game 1 | October 8
Game 2 | October 11
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) October 1, 2023
So, there you have it. While the Aces may have been the darlings of the regular season, the Liberty have been quietly building momentum and have the potential to shock everyone in the Finals. It will be a showdown for the ages, and I can’t wait to see how it all shakes out.
Remember, sports betting is all about finding value and making informed decisions. And right now, the value is all on the New York Liberty. So, take the moneyline, bet the under, and prepare for an epic Finals series.
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