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- What: Connecticut Sun vs. New York Liberty
- When: Tuesday, September 26th
- Where: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY
In the upcoming WNBA showdown, the New York Liberty is set to flip the script and prove their mettle against the Connecticut Sun.
After reading our valuable WNBA betting tips and tricks, you should be eager to make your WNBA bets.
If you’re a hoops junkie, you’re likely stoked for the upcoming WNBA contest between the New York Liberty and the Connecticut Sun. The last time these teams squared off, the Sun walked away with a 15-point W.
But here’s why I’m riding with the Liberty this time around.
Game Preview
First off, let’s talk about resiliency. The Liberty got handed a tough L in Game 1, but they’re not the type to wallow. Let’s look at how the moneyline odds shifted after the Sun took game 1.
| Team |  |  |  |
| Sun | +315 | +325 | +345 |
| Liberty | -420 | -405 | -425 |
Coach Sandy Brondello is adamant that her team will “be better next time,” given the Liberty’s track record, I’m not one to doubt her.
Sure, they were held to a season-low 63 points in their previous outing, but that’s a rare hiccup for a team that can usually light up the scoreboard like a Christmas tree.
The Liberty’s star-studded roster is another reason I’m leaning their way. Breanna Stewart, a two-time Finals MVP, and 2021 MVP Jonquel Jones didn’t have their best performances in Game 1, but class is permanent, and I expect them to bounce back.
Moving onward ⏩ The only direction 🤝 pic.twitter.com/633ILtjKej
— New York Liberty (@nyliberty) September 25, 2023
Add Courtney Vandersloot into the mix, and we’re talking about a trio that can go bucket for bucket with the best of them.
The Liberty should bounce back and win game 2. The oddsmakers have made them heavy favorites. They’re priced at -405 on the money line. The implied probability of Liberty winning is 80%.
That’s a very high percentage for a WNBA playoff game. While I believe the Liberty will win, I can’t recommend betting on them at that price. -405 money line offers little to no value.
The Liberty’s poor shooting performance in Game 1 was an anomaly, not a trend. They’ve got sharpshooters who can fill it up from deep, and I’m banking on them to find their rhythm in the rematch.
Their ability to spread the floor and knock down triples will be key in keeping Connecticut’s lock-down defense honest.
On the other side of the court, the Sun are priced as significant underdogs despite having a 1-0 series lead.
Oddsmakers have priced the Sun at +325 to win this game. The implied probability of the Sun winning is only around 23%, according to the oddsmakers!
This game feels like it will be much closer than those odds. Unfortunately, even with those odds, I can’t advise you to bet on the Sun.
I believe the Liberty will win this game and head into game 3 with the series tied at 1-1.
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Total Points
Speaking of defense, the Liberty will need to step up their game on that end of the floor. They were outrebounded 35-30 in their last outing, and that’s an area they’ll need to address.
If they can hold their own on the glass and limit Connecticut’s second-chance opportunities, they’ll be in a much better position to secure the win.
You might be tempted to hammer the over, but I’d advise against it.
| Team | | | |
| Over 161 Points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Under 161 Points | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The total of 161 points feels a tad high, especially considering the Sun’s stout defense and the Liberty’s struggle to score in Game 1.
I’d recommend betting under 161 points at -110 odds as the best move.
To sum it up, I’m backing the Liberty for a bounce-back performance. They’ve got the talent, the grit, and the motivation to flip the narrative.
The Sun might have had their day in Game 1, but I’m predicting a Liberty revival in the rematch.
Guards gave it their all 💪#CTSun | #ForgedByFire 🔥| #WNBAPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/ESQklWOucc
— Connecticut Sun (@ConnecticutSun) September 24, 2023
Remember, this isn’t a “sure thing” or a “guarantee,” but a calculated perspective based on the data and dynamics. So buckle up, folks; we’re in for a thrilling ride.
Before you dive into the exciting world of WNBA bets, you will want to explore our top sportsbook reviews.
