- What: New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
- When: Thursday, August 17th
- Where: Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas, NV
In the high-stakes world of the WNBA, the New York Liberty has found a winning hand. Their rise has been nothing short of meteoric, and they’ve kept the reigning champions, the Las Vegas Aces, in check.
Let’s look at this match between the two top teams in the WNBA.
With the two teams set for a highly-anticipated rematch this Thursday, the odds are starting to lean towards the Liberty, and for good reason.
First off, let’s talk about the Liberty’s recent dominance. They’ve been the talk of the town, especially after handing the Aces their first home loss of the season with an impressive 82-63 victory in the Commissioner’s Cup.
This came just nine days after the Liberty routed the Aces 99-61 at home.
The Liberty’s forward, Breanna Stewart, who joined the team in the offseason, has been a game-changer. Her focus on winning games and contending for championships has clearly rubbed off on the team.
The Liberty lift the Commissioner’s Cup and the MVP trophy following their big win 🏆🏆 pic.twitter.com/8AWN3omFbU
— ESPN (@espn) August 16, 2023
They’ve managed to keep the Aces, who average 94 points per game, well below their scoring average in their last two meetings.
But it’s not just about the Liberty’s stellar performance. The Aces are also showing signs of struggle, particularly with the absence of Candace Parker.
It doesn’t seem like the Aces will be able to make up for the loss of Candace Parker. The Liberty have the Aces figured out at this point. I would not bet on the Aces to win this game despite them being heavily favored at -260 odds.
With Parker on the sidelines, the Aces’ offensive efficiency has taken a hit, and it has shown in their poor shooting percentages in their last two games against the Liberty.
As Aces coach Becky Hammon candidly admitted, “You can’t beat a team shooting 19 percent when that team is shooting 43 percent. The math doesn’t work.”
The Liberty’s strategy of keeping the pressure on has clearly rattled the Aces. In their previous game, reigning MVP A’ja Wilson was held to just nine points for the second straight game against the Liberty.
The Liberty are underdogs to the tune of +220 on the money line. The implied probability of those odds is 31%.
This is way too low, the Liberty just dominated the Aces and are likely to do it again. I recommend betting on the Liberty to win this game on the money line at +220 odds.
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Let’s also take a look at the total points market in this game.
|Over 176.5 Points||-110||-110||-110|
|Under 176.5 Points||-110||-110||-110|
New York had advantages of 28-8 in bench scoring and 49-28 in rebounding, a clear sign that the Aces are missing Parker’s presence on the court.
However, it’s not all gloom and doom for the Aces. They did win the first meeting 98-81 in June, but that was with a healthy Parker. The question now is whether they can find a way to adjust without her.
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) August 16, 2023
The Liberty’s current form, the Aces’ struggles without Parker, and the data from their recent games make a strong case for picking the Liberty to win the upcoming game.
The total in this game feels high, I don’t know how the Aces make up for the loss of Parker on the offensive end. That being said I would recommend betting Under 176.5 points.
It’s not a lock; no game ever is, but if you want to place a wager, the Liberty is the smart pick. Remember, always bet responsibly and enjoy the game. After all, it’s not just about the bet; it’s about the love of the game.
Before you dive into the exciting world of WNBA bets, you will want to explore our top sportsbook reviews.