Despite Crash and Injury, Francesco Bagnaia is the Favorite to win the 2023 San Marino GP

  • What: Gran Premio Red Bull di San Marino e della Riviera di Rimini
  • Date: Sunday, September 10, 2023
  • Location: Misano World Circuit
  • Where: Misano Adriatico, Italy
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: NBC

The big news heading into Sunday’s San Marino MotoGP race is that the reigning champion and current 2023 points leader, Francesco Bagnaia, intends to compete. Bagnaia was involved in a scary incident at the Catalan Grand Prix in Barcelona. He suffered a nasty highside on the opening lap of the race and was flung through the air. After landing on the course in front of the pack, Brad Binder ran over Bagnaia, who was taken to the hospital. On Thursday, Bagnaia was cleared to race on Sunday, but he is not 100 percent. He reported, “I have a big hematoma on my right knee. It will be a problem to move my leg.”

Despite not finishing the race, which Aleix Espargaro won, Bagnaia remains in first place in the 2023 MotoGP points standings with 260. He has five wins this year, with his most recent victory coming in the Austrian GP. Jorge Martin is in second place in the points race with 210, and Marco Bezzecchi wraps up the top three with 189 points on the year.

Bagnaia has won this race in back-to-back years. He looks for three in a row in 2023.

Before we look at the betting breakdown and picks for the 2023 San Marino Grand Prix, check out the best sites for MotoGP betting and our picks for the 2023 MotoGP Championship.

2023 San Marino Grand Prix betting picks

To Win 2023 San Marino Grand PrixBovadaBetOnline ReviewMyBookie Review
Francesco Bagnaia+150+125+135
Jorge Martin+450+450+475
Maverick Vinales+700+650+600
Aleix Espargaro+800+1000+950
Jack Miller+1200+1200+1200
Johann Zarco+1400+1500+1400
Marc Marquez+1500+1500+1400
Marco Bezzecchi+1800+1800+1600

Francesco Bagnaia

While he hasn’t had the consistency he did last year when he won six of nine races in the middle of the 2022 MotoGP season, Francesco Bagnaia has managed to rack up five wins this year. The longest Bagnaia’s gone without a victory is two races, when he failed to win the second and third starts of the 2023 MotoGP season. With 260 points this year, Bagnaia is only five points shy of the 265 points that won him the 2022 MotoGP championship.

Despite his crash and injury, Bagnaia is the betting favorite to win the San Marino GP. A lot of that is due to his victories on the course over the past two years. However, it’s hard to overlook his injured right knee heading into Sunday.

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Jorge Martin

Currently No. 2 in the points race, Jorge Martin is looking to pick up his second win of the 2023 MotoGP season when the riders take to the course at Misano World Circuit in Italy on Sunday. The 25-year-old is in his third year on the MotoGP circuit, and he looks poised to make a big jump this year after finishing the previous two campaigns in ninth place with 111 and 152 points. Martin has already accumulated 210 points this season. He and Bagnaia are the only two riders with over 200 points on the year. Along with his win in Germany, Martin has finished in the top five six times this year. He is coming off a third-place finish at the Catalan GP.

Martin did not finish this race in his rookie year, but he placed ninth at San Marino in 2022.

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Maverick Vinales

The Aprilia Racing Team finished in first and second place last week at the Catalan Moto GP, with Aleix Espargaro placing first and Maverick Vinales finishing as the runner-up. Despite losing to Espargaro, the 28-year-old Vinales has better betting odds to win the San Marino GP than his teammate. That might be because, from all appearances, Vinales had the faster bike last week.

Vinales has not won a MotoGP race since his debut in the series in 2021. However, he is racing well. Over his past three starts, Vinales has placed fifth, sixth, and second. Further, he finished in third in this race last year.

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Best betting picks for the 2023 San Marino Grand Prix

While Francesco Bagnaia is the betting favorite, it might be best, but also a little risky, to fade him in this race. The crash doesn’t bother me much, but the right knee injury is concerning. Saying that, I would not blame anyone for wagering on Bagnaia to win. After all, he’s been a dominant force this year. As for my betting pick for the 2023 San Marino GP, I’m going with Maverick Vinales to win. There is betting value in picking Vinales, and he and his team will be confident heading into Sunday’s race.

Best 2023 MotoGP San Marino GP bet: Maverick Vinales to win.

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-view broadcast of UFC 1. He also has extensive experience in esports, particularly League of Legends and Counter Strike, dating back to the game's launch.