UFC 276 Picks: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway 3

  • Date & Location: Saturday, July 2 @T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Time: Early Prelims (6 p.m. ET), Prelims (8 p.m. ET), Main Card (10 p.m. ET)
  • How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+), Prelims (ABC). Main Card (ESPN + pay-per-view)

The UFC’s 10th annual “International Fight Week” begins on Monday, June 27 and runs through July 3, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC 276, which takes place Saturday. July 2 from T-Mobile Arena. serves as the anchor for the week-long celebration.

The main event of the UFC 276 fight card sees Israel Adesanya put his UFC middleweight title on the line against the No. 2 ranked Jared Cannonier. In the evening’s co-main event, UFC featherweight champ, Alexander Volkanovski, meets former UFC 145-pound king Max Holloway. This matchup marks the third time the two have faced off in the past two-and-a-half years. Volkanovski won the previous meetings via decision.

Before we look at the matchup between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway on the UFC 276 PPV card, which streams on ESPN+, check out the best UFC betting sites and where you can find the best odds on all the UFC fights.

UFC 276 picks: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway

To Win UFC 276 Co-Main EventBetOnlineBovadaXBetGTBetsMyBookie
Alexander Volkanovski-185-190-190-190-190
Max Holloway+160+155+155+155+155

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway breakdown and analysis

Max Holloway has established himself as the standard for striking volume and output in the UFC. The Hawaiian holds the UFC career record for significant strikes landed (2,848). Holloway also owns UFC records in total strikes landed (3,056). The former champ’s 2021 bout opposite Calvin Kattar saw him set records in striking differential (plus 312), significant strikes landed (445), significant strikes attempted (744), distance strikes landed (439), significant head strikes landed (274), significant body strikes landed (117), total strikes landed (447) and total strikes attempted (746).

One fighter who has shut down Holloway’s output and ability to connect — on two occasions — is Alexander Volkanovski.

In their first meeting, Volkanovski outlanded Holloway 157 to 135. The Australian had a defense rate of 49 percent. In the rematch, the champs defense was stronger, at 62 percent. In that rematch, he outlanded Holloway 139 to 111 in total strikes. Those 111 strikes were the fewest strikes Holloway landed in a five-round fight with the UFC. 

The champ is superb at mixing up his attacks. In the second meeting between these two he landed 46 percent head strikes and 48 percent leg strikes. Volkanovski kept Holloway guessing and he kept him to the outside. One of the most sound technical strikers in the UFC, Volkanovski is disciplined, well-coached and able to adjust in fight.

Volkanovski’s sound defense and technical offense have proven to be an unbeatable combination in the UFC. The champ is a perfect 11-0 in the UFC.

Pick: Alexander Volkanovski to defeat Max Holloway.

Alexander Volkanovski TO DEFEAT MAX HOLLOWAY
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-185
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Betting Value with Volkanovski

These two have fought 50 minutes inside the octagon already and landed a combined 542 total strikes without a single knockdown. One bet to make on this contest is that it goes the full five rounds.

There’s a chance Holloway has figured out Volkanovski after their first two fights. However, there’s a better chance that Volkanovski and his coaches have made some small improvements that will give him the incremental edge over his opponent.

Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski to beat Max Holloway via decision.

Alexander Volkanovski TO DEFEAT MAX HOLLOWAY
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-190
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What’s at stake

With this being a trilogy fight, the odds are very high that UFC 276 marks the final opportunity for Max Holloway to regain his title from Alexander Volkanovski. As for the champ, the third win over Holloway should put to rest any doubts that he is the rightful champion.

Pick: Alexander Volkanovski to defeat Max Holloway.

Alexander Volkanovski TO DEFEAT MAX HOLLOWAY
star iconstar iconstar iconstar iconstar icon
-190
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Trent Reinsmith

Trent covers UFC and MMA for MTS. He currently covers MMA for MMA Junkie and Forbes. He has also written for Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively among others. He has been involved with MMA since he and some friends threw some money together to purchase the pay-per-view of UFC 1, and the rest is history.

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