- What: UFC 283 PPV card
- Date: Saturday, January 21, 2023
- Location: Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Time: Early Prelims (TBA), Prelims (8 p.m. ET), Main Card (10 p.m. ET)
- How to Watch: Early Prelims (ESPN+) Prelims (TBA). Main Card (ESPN + pay-per-view)
In late November, UFC light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka withdrew from his UFC 282 title fight opposite Glover Teixeira. At the same time, Prochazka surrendered his light heavyweight title. The reason for both was a shoulder injury with a long recovery time forecast for Prochazka. The UFC hoped the winner of the UFC 282 main event matchup between ex-champ Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev would decide who would claim the vacant crown. That did not happen, and the bout — which UFC president Dana White was not happy with — ended in a draw. That same night the UFC booked ex-champ Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill as the main event of UFC 283, which takes place in Teixeira’s home country of Brazil. Here is some background on the card’s main event fighters before we discuss, in detail, the UFC 283 betting breakdown.
Teixeira is the No. 2 fighter in the official UFC light heavyweight rankings. His six-fight winning streak, which included a title-winning submission of Blachowicz, ended in June when Prochazka submitted him in the fifth-round in a fight that many thought was the best UFC fight of 2022.
Hill is the No. 7 fighter in the official UFC 205-pound rankings. Hill is on a three-fight winning streak and is coming off an August fourth-round TKO win over ex-title challenger Thiago Santos.
UFC 283 Picks: Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill Picks
Glover Teixeira vs. Jamahal Hill breakdown and analysis
This fight, without a doubt, is the most formidable challenge of the 31-year-old Hill’s UFC career. The UFC moved Hill onto UFC 283 off a scheduled bout against ex-title challenger and current No. 6 ranked light heavyweight Anthony Smith.
Hill is an outstanding striker and if this fight was contested as a stand up only affair, I would give him a better-than-average chance of beating Teixeira, but it’s a mixed martial arts bout and that is going to be a problem for Hill.
Teixeira has seen it all in MMA. He’s faced Jon Jones and gone five rounds with the then-champion. Hill will not bring anything to this fight that Teixeira hasn’t dealt with before. The one thing that might be a concern is Teixeira’s age, but the 43-year-old handled himself pretty well against Prochazka, so I don’t see that coming into play in this matchup.
Hill might be a future champ, but his reign is not going to begin at UFC 283.
Pick: Glover Teixeira to beat Jamahal Hill at UFC 283.
Who has the edge
Teixeira has a massive advantage over Hill in both amount of experience and facing high-level opposition. A pro since 2002, Teixeira has been facing the best UFC opponents since 2013, when he matched up against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. UFC 283’s main event will be his 41st pro fight. Hill turned pro in 2017 and has only been in 13 fights.
Teixeira’s jiu-jitsu and ground skills give him an enormous advantage over Hill. He has 10 submission wins in his career and his 2.20 takedowns per 15 minutes are going to be a problem for Hill, who Santos took down six times in their August matchup. And while Hill didn’t have a lot of problems on the mat in that fight, Teixeira has excellent grappling skills and heavy ground strikes to help him create openings.
Pick: Glover Teixeira to beat Jamahal Hill.
Best UFC 283 Bets
Hill has a puncher’s chance to win this fight, so if you favor the younger fighter, the best bet to make is Hill to beat Teixeira via knockout. I don’t believe that’s how the fight is going to play out. I think Teixeira will use his veteran savvy to exploit the weaknesses in Hill’s game and look for takedowns early and often. With that, I see the former champion picking up a submission win when Hill gets tired. The best UFC 283 bet is for Teixeira to win. From there, other bets for UFC 283’s main event are Teixeira to win via submission in the second half of the light heavyweight contest.
Best UFC 283 picks: Glover Teixeira to defeat Jamahal Hill via submission.
See below a list of reliable sportsbooks and choose the best one for you.