Best Boxing Bets: Jake Paul to beat out Nate Diaz

  • Who: Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz
  • Date: August 5, 2023
  • Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
  • Location: American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX
  • How to Watch: DAZN Pay-Per-View

Jake Paul looks to bounce back from his first boxing loss when he faces former UFC fighter Nate Diaz on August 5 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The boxing matchup, which will be contested at 185-pounds, is scheduled for 10 rounds and will be broadcast on DAZN pay-per-view. Here is some background on the fighter before we look at the betting breakdown, odds, and picks for the fight between Jake Paul and Nate Diaz.

Paul has a boxing record of 6-1. He has two wins over former UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley, a victory over ex-UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva and a knockout of former Bellator and One FC welterweight titleholder Ben Askren. Paul is coming off an eight-round split decision setback to Tommy Fury, the younger brother of heavyweight boxing champ Tyson Fury, in February.

Diaz has never boxed professionally. However, along with his strong grappling background, the former UFC fighter has relied on boxing training during his long MMA career. Diaz has a 21-13 MMA record. He is 2-3 in his past five outings and coming off a September submission win over former UFC lightweight champ Tony Ferguson.

Before we look at the fight between Jake Paul and Nate Diaz, check out the best boxing betting sites and our betting picks for the fight between Errol Spence and Terence Crawford.

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz betting picks

FightersBetOnline ReviewBovadaBetUS ReviewGTBets ReviewMyBookie Review
Jake Paul-375-350-325-310-370
Nate Diaz+275+250+235+240+242

Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz betting breakdown

Nate Diaz is an unknown quantity when it comes to boxing. Yes, he has trained in the sport and been a sparring partner for Andre Ward, but he has never fought in the ring wearing 10-ounce gloves. There’s no doubt that Diaz takes his combat sports seriously and that he’ll be ready for Paul, but there are real concerns about how well the 38-year-old Diaz will perform against his 26-year-old foe.

Diaz’s style could give Jake Paul fits. The former UFC fighter is unorthodox when it comes to his striking. He employs odd angles, a busy jab, and a good one-two. He also uses in-fight taunting and trash talk to get under the skin of his opposition. Paul has not faced someone like Diaz before. He’ll need to remain focused and ignore Diaz’s attempts to deploy distractions. Diaz will use his long jab to set up his power punches. Paul must be ready to step out or parry that jab and answer with a strong counter.

I expect that Paul is training with fighters who can mimic Diaz’s style, and while that’s great, he also needs to work on sustaining his cardio for a possible 10-round fight. If Paul, who punches with great power, expends too much energy, Diaz will be there to make him pay.

Paul’s size and power are the two items that give him the advantage in this matchup. Diaz will struggle with both of those things during this fight, and if Paul can establish his power early, he’ll take control of the battle. Paul can’t let Diaz dictate pace or range at any point of this bout.

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Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz: Who has the edge?

Paul is going to be the much bigger fighter. He has fought as heavy as 191.5 pounds as a pro and weighed in at 183.6 to face Fury. Diaz spent much of his MMA career at 155 pounds before moving up to 170 in later years. However, his frame was much better suited for 155.

The power advantage in this fight goes to Paul. He is a heavy puncher, and he can make solid contact. His knockouts of Woodley and Askren were no joke. Diaz has always been a volume puncher. He doesn’t have one-punch power, but he is accurate, and his cardio allows him to set a pace that few opponents can keep up with.

Outside of size and power, there is a legit concern about Diaz’s ability to take punches. The Stockton, California-based scrapper has a good chin, but he cuts easily and often. If Paul can tag Diaz early with jabs, Diaz might be at the mercy of the ringside doctors.

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Best Bets for Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz

Jake Paul has the power to put Nate Diaz away, but Diaz, if he is training correctly, can exploit Paul’s tendencies to throw everything with as much power as possible. Diaz could also decide to employ a defense-first approach in the early rounds of the contest in the hopes of taxing Paul’s cardio and then using his volume punching to pick up points on the scorecards. I understand Paul being the betting favorite in this contest, but I also see Diaz as a live betting underdog, if he has the perfect approach.

With all things being equal, I believe Paul is approaching this fight more seriously than Diaz. With that, I expect the bigger fighter, who also has more to lose, to continue to shore up his weaknesses and fight smarter than he has in the past. I also believe Diaz will take risks against Paul, which will cost him. I’d be willing to place a small value wager on Diaz picking up a decision win or a late knockout stoppage. Still, my betting prediction for this fight is that Jake Paul scores a knockout victory in the first half of the battle. A case could also be made to place a bet on Paul to win via decision.

Best bet for Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz: Jake Paul to win via knockout. 

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Trent Reinsmith

Trent is a professional sports journalist specializing in UFC, MMA, and esports coverage. His work has been featured in prestigious publications such as USA Today Sports, Vice, Bloody Elbow, Fight! Magazine, UFC 360, and Narratively. Trent's connection to MMA dates back to the early days when he and his friends pooled their resources to purchase the pay-per-view broadcast of UFC 1. He also has extensive experience in esports, particularly League of Legends and Counter Strike, dating back to the game's launch.