Trent Reinsmith
- What: Undisputed Super Middleweight Title Fight
- Who: Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs. John Ryder
- Date: Saturday, May 6, 2023
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Estadio Akron in Zapopan, Jalisco, Mexico
- How to Watch: DAZN pay-per-view
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez has not fought in his home country of Mexico since he scored a TKO win over Kermit Cintron in 2011. The 32-year-old Alvarez ends that drought on Cinco de Mayo weekend when he puts his undisputed super middleweight championship on the line against John Ryder at Estadio Akron in Zapopan, Jalisco, Mexico on May 6. Here is some background on the fighters before we dig into the Alvarez vs. Ryder betting breakdown.
Saturday’s fight marks Alvarez’s 35th fight in Mexico. The super middleweight champ brings a 58-2-2 career record to the ring. Alvarez has scored 39 of his victories via knockout. He enters the contest coming off a September unanimous decision win over Gennady Golovkin in their trilogy bout. The Ring has Alvarez as the top boxer in the super middleweight division. He holds titles from WBA, WBC, IBF, WBO, and The Ring in the super middleweight division. He is also rated as the No. 5 pound-for-pound boxer by “The Bible of Boxing.”
The 34-year-old Ryder has a career record of 32-5 with 18 knockouts. The English fighter has wins in his four outings and is coming off a fifth-round stoppage win over Zach Parker in November. Ryder is the No. 5 rated boxer in the super middleweight division, according to The Ring.
Before we look at the super middleweight title fight between Canelo Alvarez and John Ryder, check out our boxing betting guide and the best boxing betting sites.
Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez vs. John Ryder betting picks
| Fighters |  |  |  |  |
| John Ryder | +800 | +850 | +750 | +664 |
| Canelo Alvarez | -1500 | -1600 | -1600 | -2000 |
Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder prediction and pick
This might not be the biggest fight Canelo Alvarez could have booked, but his bout opposite John Ryder has a lot of importance for the super middleweight champ as it takes place in his home country on Cinco de Mayo weekend. Those expecting to see an unmotivated Alvarez should put that thought out of his mind. As for Ryder, this is the biggest fight of his career.
Ryder’s best chance in this fight is to take a page from the boxers who have realized some success against Alvarez. The key to that success is to fight behind an active jab and disrupt Alvarez’s footwork and timing. Anything short of that, and Ryder will struggle in this matchup.
As for Alvarez, he needs to keep his emotions in check and not worry about playing to the hometown crowd. Luckily for him, Ryder’s style, which is not to fight behind his jab, should provide Alvarez the opportunity for him to do a lot of damage. However, Alvarez can’t force things, he needs to wait for Ryder to provide opportunities, which he will.
Who has the edge
Alvarez is the better boxer in every way. Ryder tends to lunge into his punches, which puts him off balance. Against a technician like Alvarez, that will be something the champ will be looking to exploit from the opening of the contest. Another stylistic flaw of Ryder’s is that he keeps a low lead guard. Alvarez also has a potent lead hand hook and if he doesn’t guard his body well, Ryder will eat a lot of body shots via that technique.
For as long as this fight lasts, Alvarez will be able to take advantage of Ryder’s tendency to get too tight when he closes the distance, allowing Alvarez to catch his opponent off balance with sneaky little uppercuts. As for defense, Alvarez will also use a step-back defense when Ryder comes forward. With Ryder’s tendency to come in off balance, Alvarez will have the time and space to come forward and land punches to his off-balance foe.
Whats at stake
For Ryder, this fight presents the chance to score one of the biggest upsets in boxing history. As for Alvarez, a win here should spark talks of a potential rematch with the last man to defeat Alvarez, Dmitry Bivol, who has mentioned that he’s interested in facing Alvarez at super middleweight and not light heavyweight if that outing comes about.
Best Alvarez vs. Ryder bets
The easy bet to make in this contest is to pick Alvarez to win, but there is not much value in that selection. The best bet for the Alvarez vs. Ryder contest is to pick Alvarez to score his first knockout win since he stopped Caleb Plant in the 11th round of their 2021 matchup.
Best bet for Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder: Alvarez to win via knockout.
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